This past week, Republican leaders have finally seemed to show some interest in a rational response to COVID-19. The most well-publicized case would be the governor of Alabama, who previously signed a bill into law that prevents vaccine passports from existing, but who now blames unvaccinated people for the latest surge in COVID-19 cases — which is shockingly accurate coming from a Republican. Outside of a centrally-managed system like a vaccine passport, there is literally no way to figure out who isn’t vaccinated, but Missouri is trying a carrot instead of a stick by having a lottery for those who have decided to get vaccinated.
The question, though, is why do Republican leaders suddenly care about vaccinations? They’ve been sacrificing their constituents to the virus for a year and a half, grinning broadly the whole time. Here’s some speculation:
- Maybe they finally realized that since the death toll has weighed much more heavily against conservatives, and is now nearly exclusively conservative, they’re going to be in big trouble during the next election. From an electoral perspective, they simply can’t let this continue, both from the perspective of literally losing voters, but also because it might drive away voters who lost someone to COVID-19. (I don’t for a moment think that they’re worried about any “moral quandary”.)
- Maybe they’ve noticed that those who have severe cases of COVID-19 — which is far more likely if you aren’t vaccinated — are likely to have permanent reproductive consequences and permanent cognitive damage which might create a long-term disadvantage to conservatives in the culture war. In contrast, vaccination does not cause either problem.
- Perhaps the graphics indicating which states have horrible outbreaks is making individual Republican states look bad, potentially threatening electoral politics at the state level.
- Maybe the failure of their “freedom” approach to COVID-19 is making the entire philosophy of the Republican party look stupid because people are realizing that being sick or even dying is the opposite of freedom. They might be afraid that people will realize that big problems that affect everyone require solutions where everyone works together.
Honestly, I don’t think that Republican leaders changing their tune will make Republican voters dance differently. My only concern is for those who still are not able to receive a vaccine or for who the vaccine will not be effective.