Before Russia invaded Ukraine, the voices of neoliberalism were strongly divided on the issue of whether it could happen. This division was despite the fact of the actual history of Russia’s behavior over the last decade (and, of course, much longer than that). Certainly, there were those who said they believed that Russia would invade — some even saying it was inevitable — but those who got it right are less interesting than those who got it wrong. What made some people think that the invasion was not possible?
Most westerners believe in the Invisible Hand of the Market more deeply than they believe in God. Their belief goes so deep that they don’t even say they believe in it — they say that they know. They know that when a person, nation, or corporation must choose between an action that benefits trade and the economy (especially their own economy) or an action that harms all that, they’ll make the “rational” choice. They looked at the situation with Russia and assume that Russia/Putin will make the rational choice in relation to their/his economy.
Related: The Impossible Suddenly Became Possible: When Russia invaded Ukraine, the West’s assumptions about the world became unsustainable. by Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic
Neoliberalism is a religion and the Invisible Hand of the Market is its false god. Moreover, money is not real. With that in mind, it is a fact that the choice that benefits “the economy” isn’t always the rational choice — in fact, more often than not, it is the irrational choice. That isn’t to say that Russia’s decision is rational, either — I’m just pointing out that there’s nothing rational about making choices that benefit “the economy”. I realize most people reading this are staring at the screen slack-jawed like Tucker Carlson, so I’ll try to expand on that.
“Rational” would be things like supporting the continued functioning of Earth’s biosphere, controlling actual resources (instead of money), acknowledging that violence is the only real power behind money, and realizing that money isn’t the thing that motivates people the most (it isn’t even the thing that best motivates selfish people). The biosphere creates more value for human beings than the entire world’s GDP — it just isn’t quantified in dollars. Actual resources are real in contrast with money, which is not real. Violence is the true power behind money — so applying violence directly is really just cutting out the middle man. There are millions of people working hard right now for free; see, for example “fan fiction”, “backyard chickens”, and “Stardew Valley mods”. If those millions of people weren’t constantly being threatened with death if they refuse to hold a paying job, they wouldn’t have a paying job at all, but they’d still be working.
There are rational elements to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This application of violence certainly had the potential to make Russia appear more dangerous, thus giving it more power, and certainly controlling territory and resources are rational goals that put into focus the irrationality of fetishizing cash. I’m certain that Putin believed that the west would protest effusively, but then ultimately allow the Russian occupation of Ukraine. He thought the US weak (because Biden seems weak and the country is divided) and Europe toothless and unwilling to risk exacerbating damage to the world economy. Ukraine could still end up in Russian hands, but thankfully, the west is currently refusing to focus on an economic analysis of the situation, and choosing a rational one instead.
Regarding irrational motivations for Russia’s invasion, I think we can put the blame firmly on Putin, but it’s hard to say whether narcissism or psychopathy is the better diagnosis. In either case, warming up the nukes is an irrational choice that indicates that he either doesn’t have a normal, healthy sense of fear (indicating psychopathy) or he would rather literally destroy the world than to look weak (indicating narcissism). In either case, economic sanctions won’t work by influencing him directly — they will work by influencing other people who will hopefully influence Putin.
In this moment, I’m slightly hopeful. That so many people are willing to ignore the economy and aid Ukraine despite the cost of gasoline (for example) is a very good sign. Perhaps, too, it will help people see that creating a hierarchy of selfishness, with the most selfish asshole at the top, is not a rational or safe way to order a society.