It’s probably worse than you think.
1. Trump will probably be replaced by Vance.
The initial government that is being cobbled together by the MAGAs is largely guided by Donald Trump’s giant ego and tiny intellect. As a result, it looks like a random assortment of ass-kissing clowns, and yes, they will completely destroy the federal government as we know it. None of this will be concerning to Trump’s supporters because they believe that educated professionals don’t really know anything more than they do about how to run a government. The upside of such an arrangement is that it is possible for a celebrity to finagle an audience with his majesty, and by using common sense and facts, as well as a strong dose of flattery, get him to do the right thing. In addition, he isn’t a Christian, so he may be resistant to theocratic actions.
However, it is extremely likely that Vice-president Vance (and the Christian nationalists who back him) will be playing the 25th Amendment card on Trump. The 25th Amendment says, among other things, that if the Vice-president and a majority of the cabinet declare in writing that the President is unable to fulfill his duties (for example, because he has age-related senility), the Vice-president can take over the role of President. Then, the replacement of the President becomes permanent if approved by 2/3 of both houses of Congress. Someone other than Vance would likely confirm that they have the votes before Vance took that first step.
We know that they are planning to do this because they said that Kamala Harris would do this to Biden. Remember: Every accusation you hear from fascists is a confession.
When they decide to ditch Trump will depend on how things are going with their project. If they’re getting everything they want from Trump, then they won’t replace him, and he will even be valuable as a scapegoat for them in the future, but I’m convinced that his erratic behavior will get in their way and it will make sense to mutiny.
A Vance administration would switch from clown show to hardcore Christian nationalism. That might be a different version of a clown show if you’re someone who is really good at finding the humor in dark situations.
2. The rules no longer matter.
I am seeing a lot of people talking about how standard procedures, operating rules, and the law are effectively guardrails that will control what the Trump (or Vance) administration can do. That’s not true at all. If you’re doing this, you are experiencing the “bargaining” stage of grief. Because Trump has been granted God Mode by the Supreme Court, the rules absolutely do not matter. Trump (or Vance!) can literally do anything they want, and they will not be bargained with. Trump can literally remove anyone who tells him no. Sure, sure — “we” should “fight” — just keep in mind that the normal political maneuvering that we are used to is unlikely to be effective.
Literally, the only thing holding them back right now is Trump himself, and Trump is likely to be removed, as I said above.
Similarly, elections are no longer a way to get ourselves out of this. There are a lot of Democrats spending a lot of time proposing what they can do to win in 2026 and 2028 — many, in fact, saying that the answer is to move even further to the right. However, there’s absolutely no indication that any component of the MAGAs is interested in allowing the Democrats a chance at winning back any of the power they just lost, and — importantly — they have the ability to deny them that opportunity. They absolutely do not care about the rules, procedures or laws that Democrats care about.
3. Citizenship weaponized
Under a Vance administration, citizenship would definitely be weaponized, but even under Trump, we’re likely to see significant weaponizing of citizenship.
In essence, people will lose their citizenship status in the sense of being protected by the Bill of Rights, including the right to vote; Christian nationalists do not consider their enemies to be US citizens. It is very likely that women will lose all of their civil rights; Christian nationalists believe a woman’s legal status should be connected to her father or husband. Other groups, such as liberals, atheists, LGBTQ people, Muslims, and Jews would also be likely to lose their civil rights. Some groups, such as Black men, would technically retain their civil rights, but the selective enforcement of the law that allows Black people to be abused currently would go into overdrive. The MAGAs have already said that people will be denaturalized — i.e., that legal US citizens will lose their citizenship. People assume that this only applies to immigrants and their children, but if they succeed in doing this to naturalized immigrants and their children, they will expand the program to apply to others on their list of enemies.
As I mentioned above, the normal rules, procedures and laws that would prevent this will not work. If their plan fails, it will not be because of those factors.
Right now, prisoner pay varies from state to state, varying from nothing in some states, to a few cents per hour in others. California is exceptional in that it pays around $35/hour, but that isn’t what these Christian Nationalists will want. While slavery was never truly made illegal in the US (thanks to the wording of the 13th Amendment), this policy will allow them to expand the pool of potential slaves from primarily Black men to anyone they don’t like.
In addition to all these new slaves — many of which will be what we call “skilled” workers — there will be the fact that many of these denaturalized people might be allowed to stay relatively free in the US, but they will not have the civil rights protections of the Christian nationalist class. That means they can be severely underpaid, abused, and even killed without much consequence.
4. A Christian nationalist USA would be horrific
Yes, very much like Handmaid’s Tale, but Handmaid’s Tale only covers the experience of women under a Christian nationalist theocracy. That is not a criticism of Margaret Atwood — there’s only so much you can reasonably cover in a novel and still have an engaging story.
If you take an honest look at the history of Christianity and governance, you’ll see that there have been a variety of relationships between Christians and government. Sometimes, they take the position that church and state should be separate; sometimes, they take the position that Christians should fight for the rights of marginalized people against an abusive state; and sometimes, they are the abusive state. This particular group, the Christian nationalist, is of the latter type. They have already been very clear about what they plan to do to the various “enemies of God”.
Project 2025 is only the first step in their plan.