Just now, I see that popular sentiment has pressured Biden to ask for Democrats to end the filibuster in order to put the right to abortion into law. I don’t think that nullifies the overall spirit of this post and I don’t think it will make one lick of difference in the long term, but please keep in mind that I wrote all this before that happened.
In the wake of the horrifying Supreme Court decision against women’s rights last week, there are (predictably) many Democrats encouraging people to vote. “Vote blue no matter who” is the popular phrasing. It is worthwhile, then, to try to understand what the current state of electoral politics in the US is.
First off, we know that Hillary Clinton won the 2016 Presidential election. I know you twitched involuntarily and started to ask me what crazy fantasy I’m living in, but the fact of the matter is that she won the election, but wasn’t awarded the presidency because the electoral system rigs our republic to favor the conservative candidate and hand that person the office against the wishes of the American people. Moreover, I can tell you that many leftists voted for her despite hating her and the other neoliberal trash that the Democratic Party keeps pushing on us. If you look at the actual election turnout data, you can see that Democratic party turnout was very good — better than Republican turnout. Leftists did turn out for the 2016 election, and they did turn out for the 2020 election; the narrative that we’re in this predicament with the Supreme Court because the left wouldn’t “vote blue no matter who” is false.
The electoral college (an inherently and intentionally anti-democratic institution) is a huge problem. If your Democratic Party representatives are not actively opposed to the existence of the electoral college, they bear some of the responsibility for the mess we’re in now. The combination of the electoral college and the internal functioning of the two main parties (but the Democrats in particular) are the reason why the US is an anocracy. In addition, there’s the two-party system dynamic which is apparently very hard to break.
The problem with “vote blue no matter who” is that the “who” is most generally a conservative. Joe Biden, in particular, is obviously a conservative; he’s clearly anti-choice. The Democratic Party uses the cartoonish villainy of the Republicans as a constant threat against the left, basically saying, “If you don’t support me, I won’t be able to stop that monster from getting you.” In the case of Biden, they like to say he’s had a “long evolution” but that’s not really true; rather, what’s true is that he had to change his tune in order to qualify as a candidate for President. His actual views didn’t change — he was just willing to mute those views in exchange for a shot at the presidency. That’s why he isn’t aggressively tackling the Supreme Court’s abortion decision today. Right now, he’s literally making a deal with Mitch McConnell to give an anti-abortion conservative a federal judgeship in return for Mitch saying he won’t obstruct other appointees.
My wife said I was the most socially conservative man she had ever known.
Joe Biden
I can tell you now that I was mistaken during most of the 2016 and 2020 primary processes. My thinking was that the Trumpers were going to vote Trump no matter what, meanwhile the Democrats would vote for whoever won the nomination, and that the “burn it all down” people (those unhinged, undecided people) would vote for Sanders if he were the nominee because Sanders was clearly a better person than Trump. Certainly, the left would turn out for Sanders — though many correctly saw him as a centrist rather than a leftist. Then, during the week that it looked like Sanders would win the 2020 primary, I realized that many of these “vote blue no matter who” people had absolutely no intention of voting for Bernie Sanders in the general election. I only realized this because some of them took off their mask and told me flat out: If Sanders won the primary, they would stay home during the general election.
“Vote blue no matter who” is a lie.
While I still think that the Democratic Party’s strategy of standing just left of the Republican Party is impractical (and I’ll explain that further down), I do now see that it isn’t completely insane. Americans are — on the average — conservative and they have absolutely no solidarity; they are trash. (I’m not sure what a person would be like if they were a conservative with solidarity, but my suspicion is that they’d be a leftist because solidarity means democracy and the left is democracy.) In this context, it makes sense to stand just to the left of the Republicans no matter how far right they go, but it does assume a two-dimensional political spectrum and that this strategy will grant you all votes to the left of your position.
It seems like these are the relevant voting blocks in the US:
- Conservative Democrats — these people steer the Democratic Party with their donations and votes. They say that they don’t like [obviously bad things] but oppose all significant change because it might make them materially and mentally uncomfortable. Includes pantsuit feminists. They pretend to agree with social democrats and leftists on many issues, but then block action, usually by just shrugging and saying, “It isn’t practical.” That’s because they don’t really support trans people, abortion rights, a livable climate, equitable treatment of Black people, but they pretend they do — usually. They’re always considering which group or issue to sacrifice to hold on to their lifestyle. They all say, “Vote blue no matter who!” but if they had to choose between a Republican and a Democratic Socialist for President, many would prefer a John-McCaine-style Republican over the Democratic Socialist, or might just not vote.
- Social Democrats/Democratic Socialists — the centrists, including Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and the Democratic Socialists of America. Willing to put up with the continued existence of a parasitic capitalist class as long as things are “more fair”. “Tax the rich!” These people truly vote blue no matter who; they’re the only people on this list who do.
- The Actual Left — cite actual history to suggest that the social democrats might be willing to throw them under the bus, and they understand clearly that conservative democrats are the (lesser) enemy. Can sometimes be convinced to vote if something has gone horribly wrong (e.g., Trump); might not vote for the Democrat.
- Confused Conservatives — don’t understand that the Democratic Party is controlled by conservatives; think that it is controlled by communists or something. Still believe that they can win back the Republican party. Lincoln Project people. Always vote; mostly vote Republican but might consider voting Democrat given all this fascism going on.
- Christofascists — believe Jesus wants them to conquer the planet, planning to genocide all the “Satanists” (anyone who isn’t a Christofascist), support Israel but also plan to kill every Jewish person that won’t convert to Christianity. Many of them are also neonazis. Reliably vote for the Republican.
- Neonazis — your standard racist psychos, absolutely willing to latch onto any political position that gives them more power, planning to genocide all the “non-whites” including all Jewish people. Many of them are also Christofascists, but almost all of them pretend to be Christians. Reliably vote for the Republican, but a bit less reliable than the Christofascists.
- Burn It Down People — hate politics, but don’t understand them, will vote in whichever way makes powerful people the most uncomfortable. Voted for Obama, but also Trump. More likely to vote if one of the candidates is disruptive to the status quo. Not likely to vote for any particular party.
- Nonvoters — simply too mentally lazy to get involved in the whole thing, pretend that not voting is a matter of moral hygiene. Is political ignorance a noble virtue or do you just have your head completely up your own ass?
Essentially, the Democratic Party strategy is to make sure not to lose any conservative democrats and they think they can provide information to confused conservative Republican voters that will help them to understand that the Republican party is now fascist, which would make voting Democrat the logical choice. They assume that democratic socialists and the actual left will vote Democrat and don’t concern themselves with making them happy at all. They seem to deny the existence of burn it down people and nonvoters. They know there are fascists, but won’t say so because they are afraid pointing it out explicitly will alienate confused conservatives and give both democratic socialists and actual left voters leverage. The Democratic Party is more afraid of the center and the left than it is of fascism.
The proof of this is in the news:
…lawmakers including Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have suggested Biden limit the Supreme Court’s jurisdiction or expand its membership, end the legislative “filibuster” rule, build abortion clinics on federal lands, declare a national emergency and establish Planned Parenthood outposts outside U.S. national parks, among other options.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-unlikely-meet-bold-democrat-demands-after-abortion-ruling-sources-2022-06-29/
…
Biden and officials are concerned that more radical moves would be politically polarizing ahead of November’s midterm elections, undermine public trust in institutions like the Supreme Court or lack strong legal footing, sources inside and outside the White House say.
Perhaps it isn’t obvious: They’re concerned about “political polarization” because they think it will cost them votes — conservative democrat and confused conservative votes.
The upshot of their strategy is that they can never actually win, and in fact, by constantly choosing appeasement of fascism, the Democratic Party’s strategy constantly moves the country further to the right. It allows the Republican Party to actually do what their constituents want, which is to implement far-right laws, and then the Democratic Party obliges them by stepping to the right as well — but just to their left. This is not “practical”. If practical means winning, then practical is doing the right thing, and doing it with transparency.
We know that the fascists are 30% of eligible voters, and we know that the Democratic Party candidate must beat the Republican Party candidate by 4 percentage points to win the electoral college. The question, then, is how does the Democratic Party candidate reliably beat the Republican by 4% of the popular vote? What coalition of voter groups is required to accomplish that? We know that a conservative democrat (e.g., Biden) can win against a known fascist (Trump in 2020) but cannot win against a cryptofascist (Trump in 2016). What we don’t know is whether Democratic Party conservativism/faux-impotence (and the resulting voter fatigue) will dissuade voters from returning to the polls to vote against Trump (and his surrogates) in 2022 and 2024.
My guess is that if the Democratic Party were to embrace democratic socialists and the left, they would also gain the burn it down people. They would lose a small percentage of conservative democrats in the process, but I don’t think that would be as devastating as they imagine — particularly since the Republicans have gone so far to the right and have actively promoted insurrection. Any conservative democrats that were lost would re-enter the Republican Party and moderate it, which would alienate both types of fascists. Would this work? Well, it has been working great for Republicans. They never worry about freaking out the moderate voters, and they’ve been making steady progress for over 40 years.
The average American is not well-informed and has a very simple model of politics. In short, they believe that the President controls everything — like a king — and that the President’s party are his minions. They are blaming gasoline prices (and inflation overall) entirely on Joe Biden and have no understanding of the dynamics of a capitalist economy. For example, I had a waitress tell me yesterday that the reason a Burger King whopper meal costs $10 is because of Joe Biden. The Democrat Party cannot win congressional seats in the midterms or even expect to beat the Republican Presidential candidate in 2024 without throwing iconic representatives of the Democratic Party’s current conservative democrat stance under the proverbial bus (e.g., Biden, Pelosi and perhaps Hillary Clinton). Moreover, that’s what those people deserve for 40 years of failure to do the right thing.
That is the practical way forward for the Democratic Party. If it fails, they really won’t be in a significantly worse position than they’re in now — they’ve already lost because the fascists control the Supreme Court. If this is not the solution, then there is no electoral solution. On that note: By 2024 — or perhaps even by this November — the Republicans may have rigged the entire system to make it impossible for Democrats (or any other party) to control any part of the federal government through an electoral process.