Obviously, the Trump regime’s claims that the election was fraudulent are in and of themselves part of the coup. But this is the kind of deception that has been a continuous feature of Trump, so it’s not particularly compelling. But there’s a lot more than that going on.
Trump still has a path to legally winning the election thanks to the fact that states are not legally bound to respect the result of the vote. They may send electors that have agreed to vote for Trump even if the popular vote in their state favors Biden; these are commonly called “faithless electors”. If the accepted procedure for counting electoral votes is used, it looks like Biden would win with 303 electors, and Trump would get 232 electors. However, if the states where Biden won but the governor is a Republican send electors who favor Trump, then Trump gets 288 electors and Biden loses, with 247 electors. Please feel free to check my math!
The states where this could happen are: Arizona, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont. (Again, please check my work!) I waited to bring this up until I saw the mainstream media covering the issue because I didn’t want to give the Trumpies any ideas. Despite this being technically legal, we would consider this to be an obvious violation of the will of the people, and therefore an insurrection. Such an outcome would go to the Supreme Court; I have no idea how that would turn out, and the interim conditions in the US would be dire.
In addition, Trump has been firing military leaders and presumably replacing them with Trump regime loyalists. Specifically, he has removed Pentagon leadership (including Secretary of Defense Mark Esper) and two top Homeland Security officials. Esper did not back Trump’s desire to use active duty troops to quell uprisings in US cities, and Homeland Security has been used as a Trump goon squad at uprisings (includes ICE, FEMA, Border Patrol, Secret Service, and more).
Related: Trump purges Pentagon leadership, ‘something that should alarm all Americans’
Related: Two top Homeland Security officials forced to resign by White House
So you can see that in addition to the standard flow of propaganda from the White House, they are also making material preparations for the coup, and it’s clear that the Trump regime is in an extremely good position to succeed. The only thing that can really stop a coup at this point is for almost all of the Republican political elite to reject the coup. That still seems likely at this point. Trump could also chicken out; right now, it looks like he can leave office and continue his con man lifestyle, but if he attempts a coup, the stakes become much higher.
Related: Navarro: White House’s operating ‘assumption is a second Trump term’
Related: Not a Coup but a Cover-Up and a Con Game
Below, you’ll find the table I used for this. I assumed that states controlled by Democrats but won by Trump would not send faithless electors. Columns 3 and 4 are the electors if the accepted procedure is used. Columns 5 and 6 are if the Republican-controlled states that Biden won send the wrong electors.
| State | Governor Party | Biden Electors | Trump Electors | Faithless Biden | Faithless Trump |
| Alabama | Rep | 9 | 9 | ||
| Alaska | Rep | 3 | 3 | ||
| Arizona | Rep | 11 | 11 | ||
| Arkansas | Rep | 6 | 6 | ||
| California | Dem | 55 | 55 | ||
| Colorado | Dem | 9 | 9 | ||
| Connecticut | Dem | 7 | 7 | ||
| Delaware | Dem | 3 | 3 | ||
| Florida | Rep | 29 | 29 | ||
| Georgia | Rep | 16 | 16 | ||
| Hawaii | Dem | 4 | 4 | ||
| Idaho | Rep | 4 | 4 | ||
| Illinois | Dem | 20 | 20 | ||
| Indiana | Rep | 11 | 11 | ||
| Iowa | Rep | 6 | 6 | ||
| Kansas | Dem | 6 | 6 | ||
| Kentucky | Dem | 8 | 8 | ||
| Louisiana | Dem | 8 | 8 | ||
| Maine | Dem | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Maryland | Rep | 10 | 10 | ||
| Massachusetts | Rep | 11 | 11 | ||
| Michigan | Dem | 16 | 16 | ||
| Minnesota | Dem | 10 | 10 | ||
| Mississippi | Rep | 6 | 6 | ||
| Missouri | Rep | 10 | 10 | ||
| Montana | Dem | 3 | 3 | ||
| Nebraska | Rep | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| Nevada | Dem | 6 | 6 | ||
| New Hampshire | Rep | 4 | 4 | ||
| New Jersey | Dem | 14 | 14 | ||
| New Mexico | Dem | 5 | 5 | ||
| New York | Dem | 29 | 29 | ||
| North Carolina | Dem | 15 | 15 | ||
| North Dakota | Rep | 3 | 3 | ||
| Ohio | Rep | 18 | 18 | ||
| Oklahoma | Rep | 7 | 7 | ||
| Oregon | Dem | 7 | 7 | ||
| Pennsylvania | Dem | 20 | 20 | ||
| Rhode Island | Dem | 4 | 4 | ||
| South Carolina | Rep | 9 | 9 | ||
| South Dakota | Rep | 3 | 3 | ||
| Tennessee | Rep | 11 | 11 | ||
| Texas | Rep | 38 | 38 | ||
| Utah | Rep | 6 | 6 | ||
| Vermont | Rep | 3 | 3 | ||
| Virginia | Dem | 13 | 13 | ||
| Washington | Dem | 12 | 12 | ||
| West Virginia | Rep | 5 | 5 | ||
| Wisconsin | Dem | 10 | 10 | ||
| Wyoming | Rep | 3 | 3 | ||
| TOTALS | 303 | 232 | 247 | 288 |