Grimes and Techno Fascism

Back in 2012, when Grimes’s first big hit Oblivion was released, people thought it was a subtle critique of two aspects of toxic masculinity; one being the way men make the world inherently dangerous for women, and the other being the way men will point this out as a method of controlling women. When she sang,

I need someone else
To look into my eyes and tell me
“Girl, you know you’ve got to watch your health”

We thought she was being sarcastic. She didn’t really need that, we thought; guys like that should really just shut up and stop calling grown women “girl,” right?

Now, here we are 11 years later, and Grimes has made a baby with Elon Musk twice, and Elon has meanwhile displayed anti-trans bigotry, expressed thinly veiled anti-Semitism, pretended that details of a right-wing mass murderer’s life were a left-wing “psyop”, claimed that US schools are racist against whites and Asians, and repeatedly enforced the wealthy far-right’s claim that not enough of the right people are making babies. That’s just a few examples, but we should all now understand that his supposed concern for humanity is only a concern for a small subset of humanity that he believes should survive the coming cataclysm. What Elon thinks that cataclysm will be depends on the day of the week and how high he is at the moment.

Anyway, the point is that Grimes isn’t who we thought she was.

While Oblivion is mostly just confusing (though probably not to right-wingers), We Appreciate Power is decidedly not once you realize that she isn’t engaging in satire. I want it to be satire designed to frame the lover of AI as irrational, but it’s really just simple enthusiasm. Here it is sans repeated phrases:

We appreciate power
What will it take to make you capitulate?
Elevate the human race, putting makeup on my face
Simulation, give me something good
God’s creation, so misunderstood
Pray to the divinity, the keeper of the key
One day everyone will believe
People like to say that we’re insane
But AI will reward us when it reigns
Pledge allegiance to the world’s most powerful computer
Simulation: it’s the future
And if you long to never die
Baby, plug in, upload your mind
Come on, you’re not even alive
If you’re not backed up on a drive
Neanderthal to human being
Evolution, kill the gene
Biology is superficial
Intelligence is artificial
Submit

Just to make this perfectly clear, she’s saying that “we” (the people who are correct) appreciate power, and that there will someday be a super-powerful AI that will rule the world, and you should submit to it. The AI will reward those who submit to it with a simulated world that is much better than reality. Devotees of the AI will shed their physical forms and upload their consciousness into a Matrix-like thing as the next (final?) stage of human evolution. Implied is that those who do not submit will not be rewarded.

Again, it is easy to dismiss this as just a catchy pop song referencing a silly theme in pop culture — something that no one should take seriously because no one does. However, a lot of people do take it seriously, even believing it to be an inevitability and one of those people who takes it seriously is Grimes. If you look at the scifi sources this vision of the future is based on, you’ll find that it is an ugly future where almost all human beings live in poverty. Usually, nature has been so thoroughly destroyed that it isn’t clear how anyone is even alive; the assumption being that some kind of magic machinery (powered by gumption and blood) is pumping out oxygen, water and food cubes. Just because this vision of the future is dumb, and pursuing it will kill every last human being, doesn’t mean that no one is going to try.

I guess the idea is that, yes, everything would be dead, but humans (or, really, post-humans) would still exist as virtual people running around an infinite playground controlled by an AI god. Worship it or suffer forever.

Side note: That Musk shares in this post-human vision for the world makes his anti-trans bigotry even more absurd. Does he imagine that genders would still be enforced in a world where humanity has transcended physical form? Would physical rules governing sex of offspring extend into a virtual world and would only “female” virtual avatars be allowed to “create” offspring?

When Grimes sat in front of a bunch of Japanese manga fans and suggested that AI is the fastest path to communism, it wasn’t because she loves communism. It was trolling. “Haha I am not a communist! this iz a joke- but maybe the technocrats and communists could get along!” she later wrote. Why she thought Japanese people would be a good audience for this troll is a really good question; maybe she thought she was in China.

For anyone who thinks it is mysterious that sometimes people get “cancelled” then just look at Grimes and you can see why. When people learn that a product isn’t what they thought it was, they stop buying that product. If you work in a field where your personality is an integral component of your product (e.g., entertainment or politics), then the discovery that you aren’t who people thought you were means that they may no longer want to purchase your product.

We are social animals, so to some extent every product has someone’s personality as an integral component. If you wouldn’t be friends with a bigot, a fascist, or an asshole, then you wouldn’t carry on a relationship with a purveyor of some product if that purveyor is a bigot, fascist or asshole.

Stupid People Calling Stupid People Stupid

Congress, am I right?

Here’s a video of a Republican repeatedly calling Democrats stupid because of the Biden administration’s decision to ban pistol braces because the ATF has determined that they are almost always being used to convert a pistol into a short-barreled rifle.

“Trigger warning! LOL! Stupid should hurt! LOL!”
Y’all conservatives need to come up with some new fuckin jokes.

Yes, a pistol brace could be used by someone to help them overcome a physical issue that would otherwise prevent them from using a handgun. That’s true. However, it is also true that the percentage of pistol braces that were used in that way is less than 1%; from a statistician’s perspective, it is zero.

I think that Senator Kennedy believes that what he is saying is true, and I suppose there are some common definitions of the word “pistol” that would make it true. However, it is clear that Senator Kennedy is either ignorant of the content of the law regarding short-barreled rifles or is pretending that he is for some political reason.

BATFE originally took the purpose of a pistol brace at face value and approved them as legitimate accessories (in the spirit of the ADA) that did not violate the National Firearms Act. Later, they determined that all of them were being used as stocks, making all pistols with pistol braces into unregistered short-barreled rifles, so they revoked their approval. The Biden administration encouraged this change because they want to appear to be doing something about mass shootings (they’re not), but that doesn’t mean the decision is wrong. You would have to be stupid to not appreciate that a pistol with a pistol brace will be shouldered, and that makes it a short-barreled rifle according to the definition found in the National Firearms Act — which isn’t BATFE’s fault.

Now, what would be some smart ways to deal with this issue?

  • You could require anyone who has a physical disability that makes a pistol brace make sense file some kind of paperwork that includes a doctor’s opinion confirming the situation, and thus allow them an exemption from the NFA’s short-barreled rifle rule.
  • You could require that pistol braces could only be used with pistols that fire pistol-caliber ammunition, and those guns would be exempt from the NFA’s short-barreled rifle rule. That would fit with how Senator Kennedy is claiming that he understands the situation.
  • You could modify or remove the NFA’s short-barreled rifle rule. This is the option that makes the most sense to me.

What I’m talking about here is legislation — the kind of action that Senator Kennedy could take. In fact, enacting legislation is the jackass’s whole damn job. He isn’t actually trying to do anything about the rule — he’s just trying to score points with his constituency — “owning the libs”. If he’s succeeding, it’s only because his constituents are as dumb as he is.

Side note: He also seems to be saying that you’ve got 120 days to register a braced pistol after you buy it. That’s completely wrong. It was 120 days from the change in the rule. It really sounds like this issue is just now coming to his attention and he’s dramatically misunderstood the situation. If you’ve got a pistol with a brace right now and you haven’t sent in the registration paperwork, you’re actively in violation of the law. I summarized how you can comply here: Changes to the ATF Pistol Brace Rule

The issue with short-barreled rifles isn’t really the ability to conceal. The NFA does nothing to limit concealable weapons as a category (though the original draft did require registration of all handguns, the final form does not mention them) and does not make handguns that fire rifle rounds illegal (they are still legally handguns; see, for example, the Sig Sauer P556). A stock on a weapon simply allows it to be aimed more accurately*. In effect, the short-barreled rifle rule requires registration for the crime of accuracy, which — to me — is truly absurd. Would you seriously want firearms to be less accurate? Do you want bullets to end up in random places?

Moreover, the idea that criminals will conceal short-barreled rifles appears to be the product of fantasy and not fact. In the case cited by the Biden administration (2021 Boulder mass shooting), the shooter used an AR-15-type weapon with a short barrel and a pistol brace, but he made no attempt to conceal it. Certainly, at the time the NFA was originally created, gangsters were using Tommy guns, which were short-barreled guns with stocks that fired pistol-caliber ammunition — but were they concealing them? The shorter Tommy gun configuration was about 32 inches long. Take a 32 inch stick and you’ll find you can hide it under a long coat — this was the fantasy scenario depicted by Hollywood in the 1930’s. Now, though, try to conceal it while getting in or out of a car, and tell me how you conceal it in August.

Anyone with a concealed carry permit can tell you that concealing a firearm is actually difficult — a whole area of expertise that you must develop — and that there are limits. Back in the day, I did try to figure out how to conceal a full-size handgun; it was ridiculous and I gave up on that. I certainly would never try to conceal anything bigger (even an AR-15 pistol without a brace is much bigger than a full-size handgun). Moreover, if you look at mass murders, proper aiming is not required at the distances those monsters shoot their victims.

People buy short-barreled rifles for 3 reasons:

  1. Convenience: Because they are slightly easier to store and transport.
  2. Fashion: Because gun culture considers them to be cool.
  3. Home Defense: Because a pistol-caliber short-barreled rifle is easier to shoot accurately for smaller people making it superior to a handgun for home defense, and rifle-caliber short-barreled rifle is superior to a long-barreled rifle for home defense because there isn’t much space inside most people’s homes. (Yes, I know Biden wants you to get a shotgun, but that’s a whole nother topic.)

Outside and in public buildings (i.e., where mass shootings occur), shorter rifles should not offer a significant advantage over standard-length rifles. If short-barreled rifles were more legal, they might become the “weapon of choice” for many people — but not because they increase lethality or are easy to conceal. Most guns used by mass murderers were also black, and most of the ammunition used by mass murderers featured a brass case; these features are not relevant to the problem.

None of the above is a reason why a short-barreled rifle should require a difficult bureaucratic procedure and a $200 fee, so if anyone is sincerely concerned about the law being stupid, then just repeal the short-barreled rifle portion of the National Firearms Act. Problem solved. While its true that the BATFE shouldn’t be creating legislation, they’ve been stuck enforcing a nonsensical, outdated law and they don’t have a choice.

*You can also use sling tension to stabilize a pistol.

Proportionality

Popper’s Paradox of Tolerance states that if a society tolerates intolerance, that allows intolerant people to destroy tolerance over time. Therefore, a tolerant society must not tolerate intolerance (or intolerant people). In practice, it isn’t really an ethical paradox because intolerant people have chosen to violate the social contract, and are therefore no longer protected by it; they are enemies of the social contract. Regardless of whether their actions are technically legal or not, they are unethical and dangerous, so ethical people are obliged to stand against them.

Wilhoit’s Law states that, “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Thanks to Wilhoit’s Law, and the fact that nearly all police are conservatives, we have to deal with selective enforcement.

If you have a good understanding of Popper’s Paradox of Tolerance, Wilhoit’s Law, and selective enforcement, then the next thing you really need to understand is the concept of “proportionality” and, in particular, how proportionality applies in a world controlled by conservatives (especially, conservatives acting as police).

Self-defense law requires the response to match the level of the threat in question. In other words, a person can only employ as much force as required to remove the threat. If the threat involves deadly force, the person defending themselves can use deadly force to counteract the threat.

Self-Defense Law: Overview

Note that the law assumes that we are all equal people, and that the law will be enforced in an objective, just, and equal way, but we know that in practice both the judicial system and (especially) law enforcement does not see it that way because they are made up of human beings, who are all more or less flawed. We should, however, talk about proportionality in the context of an ideal society.

Proportionality Under Ideal Circumstances

If someone politely asks you to change your behavior, it is proportional to either comply or respond to them verbally in a similarly polite way. If someone yells at you, it is now proportional to yell back. If someone hits you, and is about to hit you again, it is proportional to hit them back.

This last example may seem a little odd because physical violence is such a violation of the social contract that it seems like it might be appropriate to respond with an escalation (an increase in violence) by hitting the attacker with an object (for example). The law does not see it that way; from a legal perspective, any escalation harms the innocence of the person who was attacked and makes them a participant. From an ethical standpoint, the answer is more nuance, but still, under most conditions, escalation is morally wrong. In fact, from the viewpoint of leftist ethics, de-escalation is almost always the ethical response to conflict.

I mentioned that if a person hits you, and is about to hit you again, it is proportional to hit them back. What if they are not about to hit you again? What if they walk up to you, hit you, and immediately walk away? Under these conditions, the law assumes that you would contact an agent of law enforcement (i.e., the police) and that they will objectively apply the law to this circumstance and that the attacker will be appropriately punished by the legal system. If you follow the person and hit them back, you’ve committed a crime. Under these ideal circumstances, the jury would agree that you’ve committed a crime.

To extend that concept, if a person shoots someone, but then runs away, they no longer pose an immediate threat, so it is no longer proportional to shoot at them. To state the obvious, in this ideal world, you cannot shoot a person for knocking on your front door, pulling their car into your driveway, or running away with your “Patti the Platypus” collectible Beanie Baby.

To respond to yelling with a fist would not be proportional. It is not proportional to respond to a fist with a knife. If you bring a gun to a knife fight, that is an escalation (it is not proportional), but not nearly as bad as bringing a knife to a fist fight.

The Real World is Different

Imagine you are at a gathering of people. You are threatening no one and behaving legally. A person approaches the gathering and brandishes a firearm, pointing it toward the gathering, and you reasonably assume that the person intends to shoot into the gathering (i.e., at human beings). It is now proportional to shoot them.

Let me back up. In this example, the person is brandishing. Simply possessing a firearm (perhaps slung on your back or in a holster) is not a threat to other people. They are also pointing the weapon. It would take only a tiny movement of their finger to fire the weapon, so it reasonable to believe your life (or someone else’s) is in imminent danger.

You’re probably thinking of some real-world examples and wondering how this applies.

Kyle Rittenhouse

Rittenhouse walked into a semi-chaotic demonstration holding a rifle. Whether holding a rifle is the same as brandishing is a very good question. I think a reasonable person would conclude that entering a somewhat hostile environment while holding a rifle is an escalation (though perhaps not brandishing), but we’re talking about real-world America, and in that place, a white conservative can enter a liberal (right of center, but left of the average American) protest with a rifle and he is not guilty of escalation; if anyone physically attacks such a conservative, they are guilty of assault.

Why is that? First off, the position of the protesters was a threat to the conservative position because it intended to change the identities of ingroups and outgroups; it is perceived (in an implicit way) as having been the initial threat. Second, the police and the judicial system tend to be conservative institutions in the sense that they actively resist changes to ingroups and outgroups and see violence flowing down their preferred hierarchy as more legitimate than violence flowing up their preferred hierarchy (the people Rittenhouse shot existed at a position lower on that hierarchy).

In short, leftist violence must be less than proportional to be seen as proportional in the United States. This would include violence from people who aren’t really leftists but are perceived to be leftists (e.g., BLM).

But let’s look at another example.

Michael Reinoehl and Aaron Danielson

Reinoehl and Danielson were at the same pro-Trump rally. As a member of Patriot Prayer, Danielson was a fascist but was not necessarily a racist. Reinoehl was a Portland-area antifascist, but was acting independently at the rally (he was not a member of any organized antifascist group). Danielson was openly carrying a can of bear spray and a metal baton and had a pistol in a holster. Portland is one of the few left-leaning places in America, and conservatives planned the Trump rally for that location specifically as an act of antagonism toward Portland’s left; the rally itself was an attack. Though Danielson was openly carrying weapons as a Trump supporter in a left-leaning city, American society (generally speaking) does not evaluate him as the initiator of conflict. Rather, Reinoehl, who pursued him and shot him twice is the initiator of the conflict — he initiated and escalated. Please keep in mind that even if Danielson were (appropriately) perceived as initiating the conflict, Reinoehl would still have been escalating the conflict by introducing a gun into the situation (and that would be true even under ideal circumstances). Moreover, pursuing Danielson would also be an escalation under ideal circumstances.

Reinoehl claimed that he thought Danielson was about to stab someone with a knife. Perhaps he thought the baton was a knife. Whereas a conservative might be able to get away with saying he believed someone’s life was in danger, a leftist (or perceived leftist) is held to a higher standard.

In response to this event, the police arrested Reinoehl without incident, and even bought him food at the Burger King. I’m kidding! That’s what happened with Dylan Roof, the right-winger who murdered 9 unarmed people in 100% cold blood. Law enforcement executed Reinoehl in the street; they turned off their body cameras ahead of time, so we know it was premeditated.

Watchful Coyote

A TikTok user who goes by “watchfulcoyote” posted a video where he explains his philosophy and praxis for dealing with fascists under very specific circumstances. In essence, if they are standing around openly portraying themselves as Nazis, scream at them until they go away. In his example, the Nazi is standing near a sidewalk holding a sign that says, “Hitler was right,” smiling, while liberals standing near him try to figure out what to do; some are crying. Watchful Coyote approaches the Nazi and yells at him in a threatening way until the Nazi goes away. This is a clear escalation, and Watchful Coyote says so.

Why did that work out?

First off, we can’t say for sure that it worked out. There’s still plenty of time for the Nazi to file a complaint saying his civil rights were violated.

Second, by saying, “Hitler was right,” in such a clear and unmistakable way, the Nazi revealed himself to literally be a Nazi. If the sign had been claiming that a Jewish billionaire was funding Pride, or that trans people are groomers, liberals and conservatives would not have been sure that the man was a Nazi (or at least, they would pretend they were not sure). If he’d been standing there holding a rifle instead of that sign, we would not know that the guy was a Nazi; in fact, the (hypothetical) rifle is the least clear sign that the guy might be a Nazi. We make jokes about this, right? The joke is that liberals won’t believe someone is a Nazi unless they show up in uniform, announce that they are a Nazi, and goosestep — and even then, conservatives will pretend they aren’t sure.

Third, Watchful Coyote never touched the guy, so given that the guy was admitting to being a Nazi, screaming at him was not perceived as an escalation (even though, technically, it was). People were crying about it, and that was perceived as harm even though this harm was ambiguous from a legal perspective.

Proportional Harm

In formulating a strategy for approaching the problem of fascism, it might be helpful to think of it in terms of proportional harm rather than proportional force. It’s an imperfect way of framing it, but I think it gets closer to making sense of how we as leftists have to do things.

Because of our marginalized position in this conservative society, leftists can only apply force as a response to continued, unambiguous harm without risking harm to ourselves, including societal backlash, injury, and death. Terror is a form of harm, but it is ambiguous, so it doesn’t count. I’m not telling you what you should or shouldn’t do — just my perception of the risks based on what you choose to do. I’m also not a lawyer, so don’t take any of this as legal advice.

The horrible upshot of all this is that the fascist must harm someone, and we must see that they are about to continue harming people before we can act against the fascist, and then the force we apply must be proportional and result in a proportional amount of harm.

Reinoehl and Danielson are a good example to illustrate this way of conceptualizing the problem. In reality, Danielson had not harmed anyone in any clear way; nobody was even crying in response to him. Let’s pretend, though, that Danielson had used the bear spray on someone — that would have been harm, and a leftist could have responded by spraying him back, or punching him, and that would have worked out. They could have taken his weapons at that point, even, and that might have worked out. Even if Danielson had drawn the loaded pistol he was carrying, though, Reinoehl could not have shot at him because Danielson still would not have caused unambiguous harm. If Danielson had fired the gun at a person — harming them with the bullet — now, Reinoehl could respond by shooting him.

This is all in direct opposition to how gun people — and the law — typically approach the issue of force, and initiation of force in particular. From that perspective, you can shoot the attacker before his gun even “clears leather” — the mere act of starting to draw clearly indicates an intention to kill someone and you can respond with deadly force (as long as you aren’t initiating the conflict). (If we’re talking about an attacker with a rifle, having it securely slung is essentially the same as “holstered” and “low ready” is essentially the same as starting to draw.) The next moment of clarity would be when the attacker points the gun at a person; from the perspective of gun people, there’s absolutely no ambiguity that a person pointing a gun at another person intends to kill them. That you would wait until the attacker pulls the trigger sounds like insanity.

Recommended Reading

I recommend that you read The Law of Self Defense: The Indispensable Guide to the Armed Citizen by Andrew Branca for a lot of important detail about how the law of self defense works in the United States. Unlike me, Branca is an attorney and is qualified to provide legal advice. In that book, he does touch on the issue of defending someone else, so it isn’t just a text about self defense.

“No Labels” and the False American Center

I sometimes feel like I’m beating a dead horse, but it is clear that Americans do not understand how right wing their politics are, and that “centrist” can be a very deceptive concept. Here it is again:

The Republican Party is far-right (fascist).

The Democratic Party is near-right (not great, but mostly not fascist).

Neither party values real democracy; they simply have a strong disagreement over who should control America’s faux democracy (anocracy). Both parties reject the idea of true democracy because they believe “the mob” would threaten the supremacy of the people who should really control the country. They disagree over the details of who “the mob” is.

Having said that, the Democrats are the better of the two options. Democrats at least believe in fact-based government run by experts who understand reality. They believe that most irrational prejudices should be stifled — mostly. The problem is that the Democrats’ experts — and most Democratic Party voters — have accepted as true the idea that wealthy people (i.e., capitalists) are naturally superior to everyone else. Whereas the left sees the placement of capitalists at the top of our social hierarchy as irrational, the Democratic Party sees it as not only rational but inevitable. They see capitalist supremacy the same way Republicans see white supremacy — a concept having been proven true because it was manifested in terms of a power dynamic.

While the Democrats and Republicans vary in how far they sit to the right, the real difference is in the quality of their positions; i.e., who they see as superior to the common person. Republicans pretend that this difference in the categories of people that the two groups see as superior is a left/right difference; it is not. The Democrats are perfectly capable of keeping their basic ideological commitments while simultaneously sliding further to the right — even all the way to the right.

The Democrats want you to believe that they are “the left” and the Republicans also want you to believe that Democrats are “the left” (partially to allow Republican voters to believe they are the center). This fiction allows both groups to slide further to the right. Republicans will say, “The Democrats are communists! We must destroy the radical woke Satanic socialists and go further to the right to save America from this threat!” Meanwhile, the Democrats will say, “In order to assure stability and secure more votes, we must move further to the right! This is the only practical solution to save America from the threat of fascism!”

And, yes — sure — within the context of America’s toxic politics, you could say that “centrism” is something that exists between Bidenism and Trumpism. That would be completely stupid, but you could say that, and in a way, it would be true.

Enter the “No Labels” Party

It’s this idiocy — and a few power-hungry sociopaths who are happy to use it as leverage — that has given birth to the “No Labels” party. From their website:

In American politics today, it doesn’t take courage to follow the party line. You don’t need a backbone to hurl pot shots at the other side. To stir up hate and recrimination. To gum up the works. To refuse to cooperate.

Clearly, they think the Democrats and Republicans need to “cooperate”. Very interesting! It sounds pretty good from the perspective of a 5-year-old who is really into Sesame Street. Don’t get me wrong — that’s a great show for little ones who watch TV — cooperation just isn’t a great idea when we’re talking about a near-right party cooperating with a far-right party that is actively working toward the genocide of various groups of people. We should never cooperate with fascists.

Let’s look at the No Labels Party’s list of beliefs:

  1. “We care about this country more than the demands of any political party.” This comes from a position of assuming that both parties are making completely irrational demands; in truth, their demands are irrational to the degree that they support irrational hierarchies, and one of those parties (the Republicans) are making demands that are much more irrational than the other. Choosing a position between the two means choosing a relatively irrational position — and No Labels is asking you to do this in the name of nationalism.
  2. “Political leaders need to listen more to the majority of Americans and less to extremists on the far left and right.” When politicians actually listened to the majority of Americans rather than “extremists”, what we had was a true centrist government. I’m talking about the Social Democrat policies of Franklin D. Roosevelt who served as President from 1933 to 1945 — including the New Deal. These policies were of course hated by the elites who began working to dismantle them as soon as FDR left office. In our view, centrism isn’t enough, and it was centrism that tolerated fascist elements in our society and inevitably led to where we are today.
  3. “We are grateful to live in a country where we can openly disagree with other people.” If we’re disagreeing about whether Pepsi or Coke is the superior cola beverage, that’s fine, but if we are disagreeing about whether gay people, Jewish people, atheists, Muslims, etc. should be allowed to exist or should be allowed to fully participate in society, that is a disagreement that we cannot tolerate. It must be completely shut down immediately; if you let it fester, you end up in the horrifying place we are today. What does partial genocide look like? Vote for the No Labels Party to find out.
  4. “America isn’t perfect, but we love this country and would not want to live any place else.” Yes, yes, OK. Certainly, though, we must be able to talk about the ways that it is not perfect so that we can make it better, right? If we love this country, then we want it to be a good country — one that is good to its own people, and also good to the rest of the world. If we love it, we don’t want it to be evil. If we love it, we have to look at it critically and improve it when we find it lacking. And sure, “we… would not want to live any place else” sounds really nice, but at the same time, to just say that without a critical examination of what it might be like to live in a variety of other places (with the intent of using those comparisons to improve our own country) is an indication that we are blindly accepting our nation’s superiority — and that is fascism. In truth, the United States of America is not the best place to live; that’s been true for a long time — largely because so many people are unwilling to improve it.
  5. “We can still love and respect people who do not share our political opinions.” We cannot — must not — love or respect fascists. We must root out intolerance or else it will destroy our entire society.
  6. “We support, and are grateful for, the U.S. military” I appreciate the intent of the majority of the people who make up the US military. However, I must again point out that we must look at what our government, our military, and our fellow citizens are doing and stand against it when it is wrong. Despite the good intentions of most of the members of the US military, it is unfortunately true that in the majority of cases what our military has been doing has been wrong; and yet, we should still support our veterans. To make a blanket demand to support our troops without critical examination of what they are doing and without any analysis of how we should support them is — again — to engage in fascism.

The dot on the political spectrum for Bidenism doesn’t fall within the range of “fascism” (even though some Democrats cross that line); however, the No Labels Party (in terms of its official positions) clearly stands on the wrong side of that line. Relative to the near-right/far-right dichotomy we are currently experiencing, a truly centrist government would be a fantastic thing.

Ralph Yarl: How does a person get up after being shot in the head?

We are all very happy about the news that Ralph Yarl, the young man in Kansas City who was shot by a homeowner for the “crime” of being on the wrong front porch while being Black, has been released from the hospital, quite possibly with no permanent damage to his body. You might be wondering how someone can be shot in the head, then again in the body, and still manage to run away and end up in pretty good shape, so I thought I’d write a quick note about it for your edification.

First off, all handgun cartridges are relatively ineffective, and people routinely receive multiple bullet wounds from a handgun and manage to survive — even if the cartridge involved was relatively effective (e.g., 9x19mm, .40 S&W, .45 ACP). The same is not true of wounds caused by a rifle cartridge; these are all extremely serious and likely to result in death. (I’ll ask those who are detail-oriented to please refrain from nitpicking; I understand it isn’t that simple.)

Second, the racist shot at Mr. Yarl using a .32 caliber handgun. It isn’t clear which of the several .32 caliber cartridges this was, but in general, this cartridge size is considered to be inadequate for any purpose according to anyone who knows anything about ballistics. The cartridge case is relatively small, so it holds less powder, and it is an older cartridge, so the powder specified is less powerful (i.e., slower burning) than more modern powders. The bullet is relatively light.

To be clear, there are people who keep a .32 caliber handgun for “self-defense” but it’s a weird choice that I suspect only older people would make. Most .32 caliber cartridges will fire a bullet that weighs about 100 grains at about 700 feet per second. Contrast that with the best handgun cartridge, the 9x19mm, which would fire a heavier (at least 115 grains) bullet at around 1135 feet per second. These may not seem like dramatic differences, but in terms of ballistics, they are.

I say “older people” for a couple of reasons: 1) They might have just never received the memo that .32 is an inadequate round, and that 9x19mm is objectively the best handgun round; 2) They may have hand strength issues and are choosing a less powerful cartridge for that reason. The weakest cartridges I recommend to people (and only if they have hand strength concerns) would be .380 ACP (9x17mm; typically around 90 grains and 960 feet per second) or .38 Special (158 grains, 770 feet per second) for revolvers.

It isn’t clear exactly which .32 caliber cartridge he used, but even under “ideal” conditions, a .32 caliber cartridge is not reliably deadly, and these were not “ideal” circumstances: The racist fired the first shot through a door at Mr. Yarl; it isn’t clear whether the second shot was through the door as well, but I suspect it was. Regardless of what type of door that was, it would have decelerated and deformed the bullet. A slower bullet is significantly less dangerous than a faster one. The bullet having lost its intended shape can have unexpected consequences, but would generally be expected to make it less likely to penetrate a person’s body.

Between the marginal cartridge that the racist chose and the fact that he chose to fire through a door, the impact on Mr. Yarl’s body was probably closer to what you might expect to experience with an air gun than a firearm — certainly a very bad thing (i.e., still in the realm of “seriously wounded”), but very survivable. All head injuries are very serious business, but based on Mr. Yarl’s quick release from the hospital, he probably has no brain damage (probably not even a concussion). Thank God.

Finally, in terms of the act of getting up after being shot, the most important factor is the psychology of the person. Even a gunshot wound that will ultimately be fatal is unlikely to be immediately fatal, and that allows a person who has been shot to make a choice about what to do in the immediate aftermath of having been shot — though, not the kind of “choice” we generally imagine making. To his credit, Mr. Yarl chose to get up and run.

Climate Change: How Governments Will Respond

The whole reason I’m writing essays on this website now is because in 2004, I stumbled upon the following article on the internet:

Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us by Mark Townsend and Paul Harris in New York (The Guardian)

Once I’d read it, I realized that the Powers That Be (PTB) had decided not to address climate change. My logic was basically: If the military is telling the PTB that this problem will destroy us all, but they’re still not doing anything substantive about it, then it isn’t about people not believing environmentalists; rather, the default plan is collapse. In a panic, I made a long list of things I had to do in the next 45 years or so, and I started with the thing that seemed the hardest: Acquiring and learning how to use firearms. As a result, when the Mid-Missouri John Brown Gun Club was first getting started in 2017, they invited me to join.

It isn’t just George W. Bush and the Republican Party that have decided to collapse, but the (near right) Democratic Party as well. The Democrats are still flying the flag of (Bill) Clintonism, a slightly less right-wing response to Reaganism that the DNC believes is necessary to win elections. The entire US political apparatus (including the elites that rule it) has decided to collapse. Because the US is the dominant player in global capitalism, this plan is the whole world’s plan. You can literally learn the details of the plan by reading about the latest meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Is that an oversimplification? Yes. Are there some parts of the Powers That Be (PTB) that truly don’t understand climate change? Probably, but based on what I’ve read about Davos, it seems likely that they are a small minority.

Possible Government Responses are Limited

We reached the carrying capacity of the Earth in 1970 at around 3.6 billion people. We’ve been able to extend the carrying capacity of the Earth to 8 billion (or more) by using fossil fuels to mechanize farming, to ship food all over the world, and to create fertilizers and poisons that increase crop yields; in the process, we have effectively reduced the carrying capacity of the Earth to around 2 billion people (though that’s a guess) by poisoning the land, sea and air, with the air being the most salient issue because all that extra carbon in the atmosphere causes climate change. The PTB has put off meaningful mitigation of climate change for so long, that now only extreme mitigations will have a significant effect.

What responses from the PTB (and thus governments) are possible?

  • The PTB could decide to immediately stop using fossil fuels, full stop. This would keep climate change to 2C, but because the natural carrying capacity of the Earth is now 2 billion, there would be at least 6 billion dead people in a week. Yes, there would also be worldwide riots of a scale never before seen by humanity, and people would just stop obeying the PTB and they would lose power, having been replaced by a combination of fascist and socialist governments. As a result, this isn’t really an option.
  • The PTB could decide to immediately stop using fossil fuels for everything except food. No immediate die-off with this scenario; however, there would still be rioting in the wealthier parts of the world (COVID illustrated that even the smallest amount of deprivation will cause people to completely freak out), and the PTB would again lose power. This isn’t really an option from their perspective, either.
  • The PTB can engage in a meaningless dialogue about climate change (electric cars, Mars, greening the grid) that is mostly just a distraction while they invest in strategies for weathering (pun intended) climate change as it cuts the human population down to something below 1 billion. (So far, green capitalism hasn’t reduced carbon in the atmosphere at all — it continues to increase.) The most likely outcome is that every last human dies, but keep in mind that the PTB are narcissists, and narcissists have a stubborn optimism about their chances of success. Also keep in mind that the PTB only really cares about perhaps 10,000 people (400 families and a few servants, security forces, robotics technicians, and such) at the most, which is technically enough to maintain the human species.

So, let’s acknowledge 4 things about this:

  1. The options available to the PTB are extremely limited, and always have been — but they themselves imposed those limits.
  2. The PTB have decided that their social status and power are more important than the lives of nearly 8 billion people; i.e., this is an intentional genocide.
  3. They are not just going to genocide the poor. They are not just going to genocide marginalized groups. They aren’t just going to genocide people in “shit-hole countries”. Unless you are very close friends with those 400 families that run the world, they are going to genocide you and your children.
  4. Because run-of-the-mill fascists are enthusiastic about genocide, those fascists are going to be fine with the genocide (even helping it along!) until it affects them personally, at which point it will be too late.

Won’t this destroy capitalism?

Yes! Capitalism is wounded and dying. Remember that capitalism isn’t the “final boss” so to speak. Capitalism is a thin veneer concealing, justifying and facilitating the true hierarchy, which is based entirely on narcissism; you can see that this is true every time a government or organization makes a decision that doesn’t make financial sense. Maximizing profits isn’t as important as maintaining the power and status of the PTB, and when the system can’t do both, it is the power and status of the PTB that is served.

The default plan — genocide of everyone who isn’t the PTB — will necessarily end capitalism. The PTB will likely instead develop a sort of socialist system among themselves, with a relatively small enslaved class and a whole lot of automation, and will control resources and capital directly with violence. There might not be an intermediary layer of “money” for the PTB; instead, there will be direct trades of resources and products between territories/families, though the enslaved class is likely to continue being forced to deal with some kind of money because it makes a great justification for abuse and neglect (as we’ve already seen). It is likely that “ownership” will be expressed as territories and responsibilities that belong to particular families; the enslaved class will own nothing. It will look a lot like feudalism. Imagine the novel “Dune” but confined to a single planet, with dramatically fewer people, no space travel, and slavery. Will these neofeudal families be able to resist the temptation to fight amongst themselves? Probably not, but it’s hard to say.

That is the long term (post-2050) outlook, though.

What about the short term?

In the pre-2050 timeframe, government responses to climate-change-induced collapse will be essentially the same as today:

  • Climate change policy will continue to limp along at a pace that is insignificant in relation to the scale of the problem, including backing and promotion of technological solutions that are too little, too late. This is climate change policy as distraction so you don’t see that the genocidal default plan is still in effect.
  • Practical strategies to work against climate change will continue to be privatized but publicly funded, which puts more money in the pockets of the PTB. These strategies will never result in a net reduction in atmospheric carbon.
  • Geo-engineering to compensate for climate change will happen.
  • Political parties will engage in performative debate about immigration policy, yet all parties will continue to support basically the same immigration policies, and borders will be strengthened as the number of immigrants heading north continues to increase.
  • The parts of the collapse that you might call “economic” will continue to ebb and flow with a general downward direction. Politicians will claim that they have the solution, but they do not. The extremely rich will continue gaining wealth as the rest of us continue to become poorer; this is intentional.
  • Fascists will continue the rotating list of who they want to genocide and will get more aggressive about it. Governments will continue to respond inadequately as long as fascists remain the lesser threat to the PTB relative to the left.
  • If the neoliberal faction (i.e., the Democratic Party) is able to gain enough power, they may decide to go to war against the fascists, but it seems more likely that they’ll continue this political stalemate that keeps the left under control. The PTB will continue to see the left as a bigger threat than fascist populism because it is (based on their criteria).
  • As always, there will be regional military conflicts. They’ll tend to be more pointedly about resources as time goes on.
  • During downturns, there will be shortages. During upturns, not everything that was in short supply before will be restored. That will start with certain flavors of Oreos or certain types of vehicles not coming back, but eventually it will be whole classes of things that won’t come back; e.g., coffee, cinnamon, bananas, computers, cars.

I could keep going, but the point should be clear: More of the same, but just a little bit worse every day.

What will be the exact date of collapse?

Yeah, yeah. OK, newb. Here’s the deal: There will be no specific date of collapse. A specific geographic area will have a “collapse” but then recover, only to collapse again (and more) later. No one will even have an accurate list of which cities and counties are currently more or less “collapsed”. People will debate what “collapsed” even means. Moreover, collapse doesn’t mean that everything goes all “Lord of the Flies” immediately, and mostly, a period of collapse will just be horribly boring. We are already doing “collapse”; the collapse is here now. This is it. People may wander aimlessly and kill each other, but not like a zombie horde; again, imagine it being as boring as possible and you’ll be close to what this will be like. Hollywood has you thinking that a collapse is something that happens over maybe 3 days of exciting violence or a perhaps a month at most; the world is both more complicated and more resilient than that. The Roman empire took two-and-a-half centuries to collapse.

However, I can also tell you that nothing has changed since Limits to Growth was released in 1972, their model continues to match reality, and so it seems like the collapse will be complete by 2050 (meaning that any organized societies that exist after that will be qualitatively different from what we have now). Things should get noticeably worse than they are now (again, we’re already collapsing) over time, with 2033 being qualitatively worse than now, which is qualitatively worse than 2013 was.

Wait a sec! I thought we still had more time!

Nope, it is now too late. Collapse is now inevitable. The question now is how many people are going to die in the course of that collapse and after, and as I’ve pointed out, the PTB are still on the default plan which is most likely to result in every human being dying, but could potentially save a small number that will not include you. To change this, you would have to overthrow the PTB and choose a life of relative deprivation…and you’d have to get everyone else to go along with it. How likely is that?

What people like Greta Thunberg or Roger Hallam (the Extinction Rebellion guy) are fighting for now isn’t to prevent climate change but rather to minimize and mitigate it and distribute the misery of climate change to wealthier people than what the default plan would choose. Their best case scenario — which is extremely unlikely — would still likely result in the human population dropping to 4 billion, though most of that would be people choosing not to have children.

Are you some kind of Malthusian bad person?

There’s an Atlantic article out today that I can’t read because of the paywall, but in part it says:

In recent years, many climate advocates have emphasized human population itself—as opposed to related factors such as consumption and technology—as the driving force behind environmental destruction. This is, at bottom, a very old idea that can be traced back to the 18th-century cleric Thomas Malthus. It is also analytically unsound and morally objectionable. Critics of overpopulation down through the ages have had a nasty habit of treating people less as individuals with value and agency than as sentient locusts.

It is true that this collapse is going to fuel a huge amount of fascist justification of genocide, and it is also true that the people they choose to kill will often be the least guilty of causing the problem because they will be people whose consumption and use of technology has the least environmental impact. I hope I’ve been clear about the fact that the default plan is an intentional genocide and it is wrong. I think I’ve been clear about what is required to get off of the default plan — as clear as the PTB allow, anyway.

It’s also clear that the more the left talks about social justice in relation to climate change, the more both Democrats and Republicans will push back against doing anything about it at all, with the Democrats encouraging the left to calm down, and the Republicans getting violently excited about how the communists are coming for them. My opinion is that we should go ahead and talk about it because at least we will have the moral high ground, though we won’t end up with much else.

While consumption is certainly an important part of the math of overshoot, the people who refuse to talk about population also refuse to meaningfully limit consumption. Instead, they pretend that a magical technological advancement will solve the problem; it will not. If we combine the two issues, the answer is not to visit the suffering and death of climate change on the poorest countries and individuals, but rather on the richest; doing so would allow far more people to survive.

Related:

Why We Can’t Just Do It: The Truth About Our Failure to Curb Carbon Emissions by Richard Heinberg

xtinction Rebellion Founder Speaks Out (Aaron Bastani interviews and annoys Roger Hallam)

Incitement to Genocide Against Trans People

When a Republican says something genocidal, I don’t think it affects leftists the same way it affects the specific group they’ve decided to genocide today. We’re simply too familiar with what’s been going on, and we’ve been targeted so many times that it just seems normal now (please imagine that James Franco meme here). There’s been a lot of mainstream media reaction to a fascist douchebag who announced at CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) during the first weekend in March that:

There “can be no middle way in dealing with transgenderism. It is all or nothing.” He said that for “the good of society, and especially for the good of the poor people who have fallen prey to this confusion, transgenderism must be eradicated from public life entirely — the whole preposterous ideology.”

Michael Knowles, Fascist Douchebag

I guess I’m glad people noticed, but it’s the same thing that has been going on for 7 years now — overt fascism. It’s true that the group that is first in line to be genocided cycles through a list that includes Mexicans (racist shorthand for anyone from south of the US border), anarchists, Muslims, communists, trans people, trans women specifically, all LGBTQ people, Jewish people, antifa, all antifascists, Black people, Satanists, liberals, Democrats, Ukranians, woke people… I sincerely apologize if I missed your group.

Today’s group that is first in line to be genocided is trans women.

Why trans women? The brutal marginalization of trans people (with an emphasis on women) in American society (including murder, homelessness, and loss of employment) has been ongoing for quite some time. It was easy for fascist propagandists to make significant progress with their anti-trans narratives because trans people were already so marginalized. Fascists don’t really care who they genocide first as long as there’s someone to genocide soon. You may have heard that a Mexican cartel kidnapped four Americans recently and killed two of them, so it is entirely possible that the focus will now shift back to Mexicans. Wait… no… America has already lost interest in that story.

I’m being a bit flippant about the current situation for trans people, but only because I am exhausted from trying to convince liberals about what is real and watching them constantly reacting in the most ineffective way possible to the ongoing hell-circus of far-right America (such as: trying to negotiate with the fascists, or trying to make the fascists feel shame). An effective insult against a fascist doesn’t change anything; making a fascist recant a genocidal statement makes no difference — the other fascists already heard it. I’ve found myself in some LGBTQ spaces online, and the fear and sorrow from trans people has been truly heartbreaking, particularly when it comes from young trans people who have just found the courage to go down that road, and then this happens.

Now, of course, the fascist douchebag claims his call for eradication was not genocidal. Trans people can just choose to comply with conservative culture, after all, right? I suppose that is technically true, but imagine if someone speaking to the Democratic National Committee was met with applause when they said:

“There can be no middle way in dealing with Christianity. It is all or nothing. For the good of society, and especially for the good of the poor people who have fallen prey to this confusion, Christianity must be eradicated from public life entirely — the whole preposterous ideology.”

Nobody said this.

Nobody’s saying that, because it’s only the Republicans that are genocidal. Let’s try another one:

“There can be no middle way in dealing with heterosexuality. It is all or nothing. For the good of society, and especially for the good of the poor people who have fallen prey to this confusion, heterosexuality must be eradicated from public life entirely — the whole preposterous ideology.”

Nobody said this.

Again, no one is saying that, but you can see how this sentence is clearly genocidal, and again, we can all imagine how Republicans would respond if someone made a speech to Democrats that included this sentence and they all applauded. Has there ever been a radical feminist who said something like this? Probably (Mary Daly, I’m looking at you), but almost no one took her seriously — certainly not a major political party.

Democrats do sometimes call for objects to be excluded from society — like guns or gasoline vehicles or natural gas stoves — but they never call for people to be excluded from society. Democrats are not leftists, but guess what — the only people the left wants excluded from society is people who are genocidal because the left understands the Paradox of Tolerance: If you tolerate intolerance, intolerance will eventually win.

Right-wing genocidal narratives are successful when there is at least one major weak point in our existing culture that allows them to cram a wedge between a marginalized group and the rest of society. This wedge itself is always at least partially fabricated, but is usually based on something real. With Trump’s initial first-in-line group, “Mexicans”, the wedge was that white people are afraid of people with pigmentation and can easily be driven to terror by describing something true in just the right way. Never mind that immigrants from across our southern border are more law-abiding on average than the average American; never mind that when crime happens to someone, it is almost always someone of their same nationality and ethnicity. The real part is that people are coming across the border illegally, and although those people are much less violent than the average American, the number of times someone came across that border and later did something violent is greater than zero.

There are definitely some wedges that are available regarding trans women, and fascists have put them to effective use:

  1. Our society, and Democrats in particular, does not respect motherhood or mothers… this is despite the uniquely essential function that mothers provide and the centrality that motherhood occupies in the self-worth of many women. For a woman who wants to be a mother (i.e., do the job of a mother), offering to pay for her childcare expenses while she goes to work for some capitalist is a cutting insult for her and it is dehumanizing for the child.
    Related: The Politics of Sydney Carter’s Clothes
  2. Rape in American society is so common as to be normal. Many American women live in constant fear of men and deeply value woman-only spaces including (but not limited to) women’s bathrooms. Many parents live in constant fear that their children will become victims of pedophiles. Never mind that this problem is dramatically worse in conservative spaces — conservatives necessarily base their worldview on the world that they can see. (I’m pretty sure that conservatives don’t realize that there is effectively no pedophile problem for liberals and their children.)
  3. Our society continues to be extremely conservative when it comes to sex and gender norms, a circumstance we inherited from the far-right “pilgrims” who were a significant part of early immigration to the US from Europe.

Leftists (and especially Marxists) tend to get a bit bogged down in “materialism” which is basically thinking of things in terms of economics and especially control of manufacturing machinery. Things like survival, comfort, respect, and meaning are really what matters to a human being. Things like “money” and “ownership” are mere abstractions that get us the things we really want; they aren’t real even though capitalists are always working to tie real things to capitalism. Fascists understand that from the perspective of their potential followers, money and economics aren’t as interesting as saying, “They don’t respect you,” or, “Everything that matters will be destroyed,” or, “Your life will become uncomfortable,” or, “You’re going to die.”

One manifestation of these 3 anti-trans wedges is the “tradwife” — i.e., a woman who would like to live as a traditional wife and mother. They don’t feel respected (because they aren’t), they fear strange men (because they should), they value woman-only spaces (which is a reasonable conclusion to reach), and they are comforted by traditional sex and gender (just like most people). They’ve been told quite repeatedly that trans women are basically the antithesis of everything that they want — a threat to traditional womanhood. They’ve been enthralled by a notion that is also quite popular in radical feminism — that of “gender essentialism”.

Gender essentialism, which has long been discredited by psychologists, is a lay theory that posits that men and women are fundamentally different due to their biology. This theory suggests that there are essential, unchangeable qualities that make males and females who they are.

What is gender essentialism?

Gender essentialism has at least four broad drawbacks (in no particular order):

First, it limits individual freedom. If the only thing you’re allowed to be is something directly related to the form of your body, then that eliminates other possibilities. Moreover, the traditional concept of gender is extremely specific, limiting individual freedom far beyond what might be implied by the configuration of your body. We now live in a world where many aspects of the forms of our bodies can be altered, but gender essentialism also demands that we do not alter our bodies except in ways that strengthen these very specific gender ideas; again, this limits individual freedom. If you think you’re a libertarian, but you hate trans people, you might be a fascist.

Second, it is untrue in many ways; for example: Sex isn’t as black and white as gender essentialists pretend, and gender itself is a social construct, not a direct result of sex. Despite what gender essentialism says, women are not more emotional than men, the color pink is not inherently feminine, men can be beautiful, not all cis women have a uterus or even a vagina, not all cis women menstruate, not all cis women will create new humans in their bodies, not all cis women will act as mothers to children. (And, yeah, I understand you may not want to be called “cis”, but we’re only being forced to use that term because conservatives are trying to eradicate all trans people.)

Third, gender essentialism promotes narcissism because it puts value on what a person is above what it is that they do. For example, with gender essentialism, a woman is often valued for being a woman, and not necessarily for doing important things that the female gender might do in society. Similarly, a man is valued for being a man, and not necessarily for doing anything important (although male narcissists will constantly suggest that they might at any moment do an important man thing, like defending a woman from violence, without ever doing it). When someone who is a woman but doesn’t really contribute anything to the world discovers that a person who used to be identified as a man can “just” become a woman, this creates a narcissistic crisis for the useless woman — suddenly her woman identity isn’t as valuable and since she doesn’t have a real value, she’s going to have a psychological crisis over it.

Fourth, apparently, it inspires people to murder trans people.

If you are trans or a trans ally, here are things you can do:

  1. Organize with people you know to come up with strategies for opposing fascism.
  2. Arm yourself, and train in the use of the weapons you own. Make sure you are following all applicable laws.
  3. Expand your notion of community beyond people like yourself to other people who are potential targets of fascism. We are losing because we are divided, we are divided because we are selfish.
  4. Develop a plan for how you can survive if things get worse for you, personally. (For example, what if you lose your job? What if your home is no longer physically safe? What if your city, county, or state is no longer a safe place for you to be?) …and then include other people in your plan.
  5. Develop a plan for maximizing your own happiness. Purposefully find things to look forward to. Enjoy being yourself, and find safe places where you can do that around other people. Replace at least some of your time online with in-person interactions.

NPR: 6 Scholars on Climate Solutions

NPR released this article recently:
6 scholars explain what a real climate solution is

As you may suspect, it isn’t nearly as extreme as what I’ve said previously, and that is probably because none of those scholars are climatologists. The context is that as of now, it is probably too late to save human beings from extinction, but there’s a lag of up to 30 years between now and when the consequences of our failure manifest, putting “the end” at around 2050, where it has been since the first planetary simulations were performed in the early 1970’s. Certainly, you should read the article for yourself, but here are my 2 cents on it:

  1. We need to stop burning fossil fuels. This is obvious, but their solution in this article is renewable energy and storage technology. This is absolutely correct — they’re just lacking the urgency that I would have emphasized. Right now, renewable energy is a growing percentage of total energy used, but the total amount of fossil fuels used continues to increase (it did decrease very slightly because of COVID, but headed right back up).
  2. If a solution entails burning more fossil fuels, it isn’t really a solution. They cite the fossil fuel industry trying to shift to more natural gas. Shifting to a fuel that results in less CO2 release is better, but only by a tiny bit — not enough to matter.
  3. Beware of vaporware. A lot of people want to tell you about “new” technologies that will solve the problem, but none of those solutions are available now and none of them are scalable to the point that they can make a difference. A couple of things I just became aware of that are potential exceptions are Aptera Motors (a vehicle that is more energy efficient than walking) and Red Flow Batteries (a resource-efficient method of storing renewable energy for structures, with cheap storage being the way to allow renewables to continuously power structures and thus stop using fossil fuels).
  4. If the solution results in the same or more carbon produced, as is the case with companies purchasing “carbon offsets”, then it isn’t a solution. This just moves the source of the carbon to a different place on Earth; it all ends up in the same atmosphere. A product can probably qualify if, over its lifetime, it essentially produces “negative” carbon even though producing it in the first place did produce carbon. While electric vehicles are an order of magnitude more resource-efficient than combustion vehicles, they still don’t qualify as a solution (the above Aptera being an exception because it is literally more efficient than walking).
  5. If a solution sounds easy, well it either isn’t easy or it is a lie. If it were easy, we would have already done it.
  6. Solutions must be coordinated by government; corporations are not structured in a way that allows them to take care of the problem in a timely fashion if at all. It’s up to corporations and individuals to comply with those mandates — like they did with COVID (yes, I’m being sarcastic).
  7. There’s no one single solution to climate change. The article doesn’t mention this, but climate engineering must be one of those solutions if we want to avoid our own extinction.

All-in-all, pretty good work from NPR’s scholars even though they didn’t really suggest any clear solutions and lacked the appropriate urgency.

The Climate Predicament

Despite what’s going on — objectively speaking — with the Earth’s climate, the culture of full-fledged climate denial is still in full swing. Certainly, some of these climate change deniers are corporate shills, but that culture is now an independent organism that would produce distorted science and outright lies even without the far-right funding that is still flowing into it. This independent, lie-creating culture is mostly fueled by narcissism, it turns out.

Related: Cultural Narcissism, Ayn Rand and the Culture of Narcissism, Narcissism: Contagious, Infections, Cultural, The Malignant Narcissism of the Biden Administration

Most climate denial money isn’t resulting in complete denial of climate change anymore, though — instead, it is resulting in these very soft, “green capitalism” arguments. In other words, corporations are funding people (including politicians) who will argue that investment in green technologies will solve the problem of climate change. It will not. In fact, not only is it too late to stop the horrors of climate change, but professional climatologists are now of the opinion that climate change will quite literally end the human species. To be clear, 1.5C in change above the pre-industrial average is no longer possible, 3C in change would be disastrous, but the most likely thing is now 10 or even 11C in change (which is about 18 degrees in Fahrenheit), and that would end the human species.

Related: Dangerous Extremists and Climate Change

I’ll do my best to explain what this would be like: It’s not like a Hollywood movie where all of a sudden, things get all crazy and then a scientist (assisted by Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson) manages to press a magic button and the crisis is over. Even with things going wrong now that weren’t expected until 2050, this is a slow, boring extinction process. In the short term, people are going to have to move or die as their current location becomes uninhabitable; wars and even genocides will erupt, but usually, climate will not be directly cited as the reason. Every day, the habitable portion of our planet (and the overall carrying capacity of the Earth) will shrink slightly. Meanwhile, the US will use its absurdly overpowered military to keep US citizens comfortable and thus unconcerned and ignorant. Sorry if I’m stating the obvious.

In 1970, the carrying capacity was around 3 billion; it’s probably more like 2 billion now, but there are 8 billion of us and many of us (the rich and Americans, for example) are using 5 people or more worth of resources (and producing 5 people or more worth of waste) every year. If everyone lives like Americans, the current carrying capacity is more like 400 million. If we could magically reduce the world population to 400 million, the problem would be solved. Or if we could get everyone to live in a tiny house, stop driving everywhere, stop using air conditioning, and “eat local”, then we’d only have to magically reduce the world population to 2 billion.

How can we accomplish that?

We can’t. Even if we went full fascist, there literally is no way to erase that many people from the planet. Moreover, thanks to the various levels of climate change denial, most people are talking about how to expand access to air conditioning in response to climate change. I wish I were joking about that. And there is no technological fix; at this point, even if workable fusion happened today, it would not be soon enough.

In the face of all this, I have to admit that I was probably wrong: This isn’t really a “discontinuity” because that word implies that humanity continues on after the break in historical continuity and rebuilds. This is more of a “dramatic finale”, and we’re going to have to adjust our plans accordingly.

HOWEVER

…it is still valuable to slow down climate change whenever possible. The more we slow it down, the greater the possibility that a technological miracle will save us. Not all of us — most of us are going to die no matter what — but some of us.

Proponents of climate engineering are becoming more and more vocal, and they are absolutely right even though opponents of tinkering with the planet’s climate are also correct. The fact is that we are already tinkering; not just tinkering, but really throwing a wrench into the machine of climate. Climate engineering is just one of the many “unthinkable” things that we’re going to have to embrace to survive as a species. Others include:

  • Increasing nuclear power
  • Decreasing both per-capita energy use and overall energy use
  • Scaling down or even eliminating transportation wherever possible
  • Giving up on capitalism (and extreme wealth)
  • Extreme population reduction
  • Letting the wrong people die (i.e., abandoning climate justice)
  • Reducing installation and use of conventional air conditioning systems

There is literally no political group in the United States of America that is OK with all of those propositions. To be clear, I’m not “OK” with most of them, either, but the point is that if you put this list in front of a panel of decision-makers consisting of 3 conservatives or libertarians, 3 liberals, and 3 leftists, they would approve exactly zero of them — and that’s why we are all going to die.

I’ll flesh out each of those 7 things for you a bit:

  1. Increasing nuclear power: We still don’t have nuclear fusion, so I’m talking about more of that nuclear fission and its toxic waste that basically cannot be stored safely. We need to be building fission reactors as fast as possible and decommissioning other types of power generation.
  2. Decreasing both per-capita energy use and overall energy use: Green capitalism continues to increase the renewable portion of total energy resources produced and used while increasing the total amount of energy (and carbon) produced. To survive, we must decrease the total amount of energy (and carbon) produced — dramatically. In fact, for over a decade, climate models that showed everything being OK included a period of time where human carbon production became negative — no such technology is currently practical and real-life carbon capture projects have been abandoned because they were not workable.
  3. Scaling down or even eliminating transportation wherever possible: Switching to EV’s isn’t nearly enough. We need to quit moving ourselves and resources all over the place all the time. I’m talking about ending air travel. I’m talking about requiring corporations to require all employees who can work from home to work from home. International trade needs to end completely.
  4. Giving up on capitalism (and extreme wealth): The bait for the trap of capitalism is this idea that you (a narcissistic rube) will someday become extremely wealthy, and therefore, the grand game of capitalism must be kept running. Well, no, it has to end immediately or well all die, and a great and practical use for all that excess wealth being held by the billionaire class is to restructure our economic systems to match the carrying capacity of the Earth (which means degrowth of “the economy” and the population).
  5. Extreme population reduction: There’s no way to do this nicely, and yet, if we don’t get that number down to 2 billion, the whole species dies.
  6. Letting the wrong people die (i.e., abandoning climate justice): The rich have way more children per capita than people living in poverty, and each of the children of the rich have a huge impact on the planet, but if you’re waiting for the rich to have fewer children before working to reduce the number of completely innocent people in the world, you’ll be waiting until every last human being is dead. Certainly, we should put the burden of climate mitigation where it belongs whenever possible, it just won’t usually be possible.
  7. Reducing installation and use of conventional air conditioning systems: We love air conditioning, don’t we? I mean, I certainly hate sitting around sweating in the humid Missouri summer. The most common action item liberals propose in response to climate change is, “More air conditioning!” — particularly for people who cannot currently afford it. Air conditioning is one of the greatest contributors to climate change, both because of electricity use and because HFC gasses used to make conventional AC systems work are powerful greenhouse themselves and tend to escape into the atmosphere.

Here’s what John Doyle, a climate resilience analyst had to say about a 10C increase in the planet’s temperature in May of 2020:

Roughly speaking, you’ve been told that we may be heading for 1.5c or 2c degrees above pre-industrial temperature. That’s not true. That’s basically very old science, and it’s essentially inaccurate. There isn’t a single independent scientist of the world that would support that position now. We’re actually heading for 10 degrees warming that could happen within 20 to 30 years. And, on the way to 10 degrees, we pass 4 degrees. Now, four degrees is interesting because that’s extinction for our species. So keep that one in mind. I’m not just making this up.

John Doyle, 10C Above Baseline

So, I’ve been saying that 10C is definitely the end of our species, but I was oversimplifying. Actually, it is 4C that kills us all and we’re going to hit that well within the next 20 to 30 years, because in 30 years we will be at 10C. The 4C point will be in the next 8 to 15 years. You’re going to have to watch your children suffer and die.

Now, go back to my list of 7 things we could do to slow this down and reconsider. Keep in mind, though, that these must happen at a worldwide level — you turning off your air conditioner won’t change anything.

The next time I’m up to writing about this, I’ll try to get into how both neoliberal and fascist governments are likely to respond to these facts as it becomes less possible to ignore them.

If this essay left you wishing for more horror, then I recommend this outdated, but detailed, essay:

Stages of the Anthropocene by Lajos Brons