Coup Update

Obviously, the Trump regime’s claims that the election was fraudulent are in and of themselves part of the coup. But this is the kind of deception that has been a continuous feature of Trump, so it’s not particularly compelling. But there’s a lot more than that going on.

Trump still has a path to legally winning the election thanks to the fact that states are not legally bound to respect the result of the vote. They may send electors that have agreed to vote for Trump even if the popular vote in their state favors Biden; these are commonly called “faithless electors”. If the accepted procedure for counting electoral votes is used, it looks like Biden would win with 303 electors, and Trump would get 232 electors. However, if the states where Biden won but the governor is a Republican send electors who favor Trump, then Trump gets 288 electors and Biden loses, with 247 electors. Please feel free to check my math!

The states where this could happen are: Arizona, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont. (Again, please check my work!) I waited to bring this up until I saw the mainstream media covering the issue because I didn’t want to give the Trumpies any ideas. Despite this being technically legal, we would consider this to be an obvious violation of the will of the people, and therefore an insurrection. Such an outcome would go to the Supreme Court; I have no idea how that would turn out, and the interim conditions in the US would be dire.

In addition, Trump has been firing military leaders and presumably replacing them with Trump regime loyalists. Specifically, he has removed Pentagon leadership (including Secretary of Defense Mark Esper) and two top Homeland Security officials. Esper did not back Trump’s desire to use active duty troops to quell uprisings in US cities, and Homeland Security has been used as a Trump goon squad at uprisings (includes ICE, FEMA, Border Patrol, Secret Service, and more).

Related: Trump purges Pentagon leadership, ‘something that should alarm all Americans’

Related: Two top Homeland Security officials forced to resign by White House

So you can see that in addition to the standard flow of propaganda from the White House, they are also making material preparations for the coup, and it’s clear that the Trump regime is in an extremely good position to succeed. The only thing that can really stop a coup at this point is for almost all of the Republican political elite to reject the coup. That still seems likely at this point. Trump could also chicken out; right now, it looks like he can leave office and continue his con man lifestyle, but if he attempts a coup, the stakes become much higher.

Related: Navarro: White House’s operating ‘assumption is a second Trump term’

Related: Not a Coup but a Cover-Up and a Con Game

Below, you’ll find the table I used for this. I assumed that states controlled by Democrats but won by Trump would not send faithless electors. Columns 3 and 4 are the electors if the accepted procedure is used. Columns 5 and 6 are if the Republican-controlled states that Biden won send the wrong electors.

StateGovernor PartyBiden ElectorsTrump ElectorsFaithless BidenFaithless Trump
AlabamaRep99
AlaskaRep33
ArizonaRep1111
ArkansasRep66
CaliforniaDem5555
ColoradoDem99
ConnecticutDem77
DelawareDem33
FloridaRep2929
GeorgiaRep1616
HawaiiDem44
IdahoRep44
IllinoisDem2020
IndianaRep1111
IowaRep66
KansasDem66
KentuckyDem88
LouisianaDem88
MaineDem3131
MarylandRep1010
MassachusettsRep1111
MichiganDem1616
MinnesotaDem1010
MississippiRep66
MissouriRep1010
MontanaDem33
NebraskaRep1405
NevadaDem66
New HampshireRep44
New JerseyDem1414
New MexicoDem55
New YorkDem2929
North CarolinaDem1515
North DakotaRep33
OhioRep1818
OklahomaRep77
OregonDem77
PennsylvaniaDem2020
Rhode IslandDem44
South CarolinaRep99
South DakotaRep33
TennesseeRep1111
TexasRep3838
UtahRep66
VermontRep33
VirginiaDem1313
WashingtonDem1212
West VirginiaRep55
WisconsinDem1010
WyomingRep33
TOTALS303232247288
Accepted procedure case vs. Faithless electors case

Is the US already in a new civil war? | Vice News

Matthew Gault has a new piece at Vice News regarding the new US civil war.

The signs of a coming conflict are everywhere. Political polarization is up, gun and ammunition sales have spiked, killers such as Kyle Rittenhouse are being lauded by their political allies, and protests are widespread in American cities. Police kill unarmed people in the street, the government is polarized and corrupt, and our institutions are failing. Armed militias patrol U.S. streets and groups like the Atomwaffen Division and the Base plot to start a larger conflict. Mass shootings, sometimes ideologically motivated and other times not, occur frequently. Poverty and unemployment are widespread as mass evictions loom and Congress stalls to help those in need.
[…]
This is all happening during an election year, and we have a sect of the president’s supporters who have vowed to show up at polling places armed. If you have a terrible and ominous feeling about all this, you’re not alone. Some on the far right are talking about another civil war. Some experts who have studied sectarian violence in the United States and other countries think we’re already in one.

If you’re interested, the article goes on to provide some expert opinions about what the coming months and years will probably look like.

Democracy, Conservatives & Pandemic Masks

By now, you’ve heard about the right-wing plot to kidnap the governor of Michigan. Unfortunately, this kind of foolishness is going to become the rule over the next year at least, and it’s probably a good idea for all of us to have a cursory understanding of what is going on in the minds of conservatives these days.

Regarding the plot, the main thrust of it wasn’t something about the incoherence of modern firearm law — in fact, Michigan is one of those states that uses a very light touch in regard to guns, which is why protesters armed with rifles were allowed inside the capitol building back in May of this year without any consequences. In both cases, the conservatives involved were not angry about anything that we might think of as a substantive attack on conservative values, but instead they were angry about being forced to wear a mask in public during a pandemic. Mask-wearing appears to be the thing that conservatives are ready to start a civil war over, outshining everything from abortion to the Second Amendment in importance (though, they might find those things to be sufficient as well). In fact, there was just another incident like this — a man was planning to kill the mayor of Wichita, Kansas over the mask ordinance there.

I don’t see any reason not to make fun of them about this. I mean, if they’re making us wear a mask in public during a pandemic, what will be next? They might make us wear seat belts, or require restaurants to pass a health inspection! They might even prohibit honest, God-fearing parents from murdering their own children! That it is asinine is no reason to ignore it, though. We need to understand their mindset, because it isn’t going away — and it has been this way for a very, very long time.

So these particular conservatives in Michigan planned to kidnap Governor Whitmer due to her tyrannical mask ordinance. To be clear, the ordinance isn’t squeaky clean — it was created by the state health department rather than going through the legislature, which would be the correct route — so they’re not entirely wrong about it being a problem. But they were going to try her for treason, which is fun for a couple of reasons: First, nothing she did can be defined as treason — insurrection, perhaps, but not treason. Treason requires that the crime was done to benefit an enemy of the United States (I’ll get back to that). Second, nobody outside of conservatives who have gone off the rails is going to respect the secret show trial that you had in your friend’s barn, and you’ve already decided that she is guilty, so the only point of having a trial is because you are somehow getting off on it. Basically, the whole thing was a childish fantasy by people who really don’t understand how the world works.

Regarding this being a childish fantasy: We’re likely to find out that this plot never really got beyond the “wouldn’t it be cool” stage, and so wasn’t really a plot after all. Federal law enforcement has a long history of jumping to conclusions or even inducing people to take the step that turns “wouldn’t it be cool” into an actual plot, and we already know that federal informants provided first-hand accounts that led to these arrests. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to find out that the plotters were induced to do or say things by that informant that ultimately resulted in their arrests — and that has somehow become legal.

Beyond the infantile nature of their plot against the governor, another clear reason why these plotters are jackasses is because they opposed wearing a mask in the first place. Wearing a mask and physically staying away from each other are reasonable things to do with a pandemic like this one, but they and their ilk simply would not do the right thing. That’s what induced Michigan’s health authorities to mandate that people wear masks.

You may know about T-Rex Arms, a small-arms-related company in Centerville, TN. Their founder is a relatively young man named Lucas Botkin, who is one of the most impressive shooters on YouTube right now. He and his brother Isaac are experts in small arms, but, like everyone, they have blind spots. Their biggest blind spot would be religion.

A post on “Gun People Who Hate Gun People” linked to a story about the father of Lucas and Isaac ( The Cold, Unforgiving World of Geoffrey Botkin ) and summarized Lucas thusly:

I’m still surprised that people don’t know that Lucas Botkin, head of T. Rex Arms is a gay-hating cult member. His dad, Geoffrey Botkin, is a leader of the quiverfull movement, and there’s this maelstrom of allegations of sexual abuse surrounding this cult that basically says that America needs to return to Biblical law to defeat satanism. The kicker? Lucas Botkin is listed as a staff member at the Botkin Conservatory, so it’s not like he’s keeping his distance.

As male Quiverfull children, Lucas and Isaac were literally born to kill; children are arrows in the quiver of God, and they’re not meant to just stay in the quiver. They’re meant to fly into whoever opposes their conception of Biblical law. The girls are supposed to grow up to make more arrows. I’ll stop with describing this metaphor because I think you get it.

Still, like I said, Lucas and Isaac know about guns, and even though their motivation is being prepared to murder everyone that doesn’t agree with them during the Apocalypse, I hate to see good knowledge go to waste, so I’ve watched some of their videos. The most recent one I saw was When and How to Resist Tyranny. This video starts out just fine, with Isaac talking about a relatively new pistol brace called the Honeybadger and the legal insanity surrounding it. This is a bizarre kink in US gun law that I’ll devote a whole post to some other time, but for now I’ll say that Isaac makes good points about the pistol brace controversy. The problem is that early in the video, Isaac jumps right off the side of the whole thing and starts talking about the Bible and says that the remainder of the video will be devoted to an interview with some conservatives who got arrested in Moscow, Idaho for blatantly refusing to comply with the local mask ordinance.

The Moscow, Idaho anti-maskers are an organization called CrossPolitics, whose logo features a US flag bowing before a Christian cross, indicating that their primary allegiance is to their interpretation of the Bible, and not their country. They went to the town hall without masks and sang hymns as a protest against the local mask ordinance. As you probably know, singing is the most effective way to spread a respiratory virus like covid — it’s even worse than coughing because it is sustained. The police showed up and arrested them for endangering public health. CrossPolitics is portraying it as two different violations of their First Amendment rights. The first violation would be to their practice of religion, even though they could have gone and practiced it somewhere else that didn’t endanger the public. The second violation would be to freedom of expression (and protest), even though the right to protest doesn’t give you the right to break the law while you’re doing it and conservatives are the first to point this out when centrist or leftist protests include violations of the law.

Obeying is obviously extremely important to conservatives, and yet here they are protesting having to obey a relatively simple and reasonable ordinance. And no discussion of a bodily-autonomy issue can happen without pointing out that conservatives deny the right of women to have bodily autonomy.

What are the factors that determine whether conservatives see a particular law as one that should be obeyed or rebelled against? In either condition, they are prone to getting homicidal. It all comes down to the social hierarchy that they believe is legitimate. Rules that emerge from what they believe to be a legitimate hierarchy must be obeyed, and rules that emerge from an illegitimate hierarchy must fought against. And the thing is — this is exactly what every reasonable person with a spine believes. The problem is the factors that make them believe a given hierarchy is legitimate or not.

For example, we would say that the elected governor of Michigan has some degree of authority by nature of having been elected through a fairly democratic process. But if that governor is a woman and a liberal/Democrat, they are not going to consider her to be a legitimate authority. This was the same situation with the Obama presidency — he was Black and a Democrat, therefore no matter how conservative his actions were, his authority was not legitimate and should not be obeyed. In terms of the pandemic, more conservatives would have gone along with the mask mandate if someone they considered to be a legitimate authority had clearly supported it from the outset. However, since part of that social hierarchy involved God, there are some conservatives that would never support doing anything about the pandemic other than praying that the Angel of Death pass over their house and kill the Muslims down the way instead.

Would they have been more likely to obey the ordinance if it had been enacted by the legislature? Yes, and really that’s how it should have been done. But many of them would have still refused because they see the authority of the entire government as illegitimate. In fact, many conservatives don’t even see liberals like Whitmer as American citizens, which is how the idea of “treason” starts to make sense in regard to the mask ordinance. Citizenship is the right-wing’s preferred way of manipulating human rights, and conservatives generally want to remove the protection of citizenship from everyone except straight, white, Christian, property-owning men. They literally do not think anyone else should be allowed to vote, and then they definitely want a republic where a group of elite men (who they might say were chosen by God) consider the votes of the rest of the men and then decide what to do.

Women’s suffrage was a mistake, they say. The civil rights act — including voting protections — was also a mistake, they say. Only people with “skin in the game” (property owners) really ought to be able to vote, they say. Only Christians have the moral authority to be trusted with voting, they say. LGBTQ people are criminals at best or perhaps not even human, they say. These are all aspects of the hierarchy that they believe to be legitimate, and when power is wielded by an illegitimate hierarchy it is no different from a puppet government installed by a foreign nation. Therefore, the actions of the Whitmer government are “treason”.

When an illegitimate hierarchy, run by women, black people, and “perverts”, doesn’t even bother to get permission before enacting an ordinance related to disease — something that is the will of God — this is pretty much the worst thing a government can do. We’ve seen this with problems other than the pandemic, including vaccinations and helmet laws. Just this year, Missouri revoked the law requiring motorcyclists to wear helmets because the Missouri state government is currently controlled by conservatives. I’m betting that if you went back and looked at the implementation of nationwide seat belt laws, that the same arguments were used against it. (No need to take that bet, I just took a minute to look it up, and yes, we had the same kind of resistance to seat belt laws.)

We have these people who don’t think most Americans are citizens, and who don’t respect the religious or metaphysical beliefs of other people. Should they be determining how we all live? Aren’t these exactly the people who are apt to create a “tyranny of democracy”? I’m too much of a fan of democracy to say that they should be excluded from it, but we certainly can’t negotiate with them. If your position is that women have the same rights as men, and their position is that women are non-citizens who should be required to obey their husbands (or fathers), what is the middle ground? If your position is that LGBTQ people can live and love as they choose, but their position is that they should be executed for violating the will of God, what is the middle ground?

The biggest factor in the rise of fascism in the US today is that the hierarchy conservatives see as legitimate is threatened by various demographic trends including the increase in non-religious people (threatening the rule of Christianity), the increase in Latinx and Hispanic people (threatening the rule of white people), and the ongoing gap between the the educational achievement of boys versus girls, which is leading to women having dramatically more power at every level of society. And, of course, there are political changes that have been anathema to the conservative hierarchy, like the dramatic increase in women and non-Christians in elected positions, and marriage equality. Fascism represents a desperate attempt by the group that holds power to maintain that power in the face of what seems like an insurmountable challenge. It is inherently genocidal because it acknowledges that mass murder is likely the only way to stop the power shift from happening. Again, what is the middle ground?

The most important thing to remember, however, is that though concerns of executive or judicial branch overreach are completely legitimate, conservatives are not sincere when they bring them up. As we’ve seen, they will happily use any position of power to usurp the law or accepted operating procedures if it benefits their preferred hierarchy. These are arguments made disingenuously, meant to convince an audience that genuinely believes in, for example, the rule of law or the separation of powers. Conservatives themselves are really only interested in maintaining power. Though we should demand better behavior from government, we should not believe that conservatives would ever hold themselves to the same standard that they demand from Democrats.

Christianity is completely compatible with democracy, but only if Christians respect the right of other people to reject Christianity, and only if government policy reflects the country’s diversity of religious belief. Thankfully, many Christians do believe in religious liberty. (Here’s an argument for why Christians should support religious freedom.) Conservatives have made themselves crystal clear: They do not support democracy.

Preparing for Electoral Unrest and a Right-Wing Power Grab

Crimethinc has a very nice analysis of unrest that is likely to occur in the US after the 2020 election, and you should check it out.

Every possible outcome of the struggle over the 2020 election involves considerable risks. No matter how it occurs, a Trump victory would further polarize the country, radicalizing many liberals and leftists, but it would also likely lead to a tremendous amount of bloodshed and repression. If Biden wins the election in a landslide without significant resistance from Trump’s supporters, he will surely crack down on radicals and introduce policies that are oppressive to poor, Black, brown, indigenous, and undocumented people in order to placate the right-wing forces with whom he hopes to re-establish a truce. If Biden ends up in office thanks chiefly to the efforts of social movements in the street, it could discourage him from immediately cracking down on them, but this path involves passing through a very dangerous period of open conflict in which victory is by no means guaranteed.

Oath Keepers Prepared for Civil War

Not only are the right-wing Oath Keepers prepared for civil war, but they believe that war is already here.

A Pro-Trump Militant Group Has Recruited Thousands of Police, Soldiers, and Veterans
An Atlantic investigation reveals who they are and what they might do on Election Day.

Mike Giglio, The Atlantic

And BTW, one of the most important missions of the Mid-Missouri JBGC is gun safety, so let me tell you why the founder of the Oath Keepers has an eye patch. Was it a dramatic fight with antifa? Maybe he lost it battling a ferocious drug dealer? Maybe a desperate gun battle in the wilds of Afghanistan? Nope. He dropped his gun and thereby shot himself in the eye. It’s really a metaphor for the entire Republican party, and much better than if he’d just shot himself in the foot.

Meanwhile:

White supremacists and militias have infiltrated police across US, report says
A former FBI agent has documented links between serving officers and racist militant activities in more than a dozen states

Sam Levin, The Intercept

2020 Election

Here’s a brief summary of what’s going on with the 2020 US Presidential election.

There’s no chance that Donald Trump will accept the outcome of the election if Joe Biden wins.

Trump could win “legitimately” (to the extent that a legitimate win is possible with the electoral college system), but here is the most likely scenario:

The election outcome will be close, and because Democrats are slightly more likely to vote by mail, the odds are extremely high that the day after the election, Donald Trump will have more electors than Joe Biden. Trump will claim victory, but the count will continue.

At this point, Trump will lean into his claims that mail in ballots are being used to steal the election. Over the following week, those mail-in ballots will reveal that Joe Biden has won more electors. However, Trump and his followers will reject that information — they’ve been primed to do so by Trump himself. That’s the whole reason he’s been doing it, and his followers understand that.

Most Democrats are claiming that this will be the end of the controversy — Biden has won, and so on January 20, Biden will take office and Trump will be physically removed. That’s not how this is going to go at all.

Instead, Trump will be working every possible angle to create excuses for Republican-held states to reject the outcome of their state’s votes. Even if Biden has the popular vote and the electoral college by virtue of those votes, the states can reject the popular vote in their state and send a different set of electors that support Trump. This has happened in the US before, and it is completely legal for a state legislature to choose the electors for their state rather than leaving it to the voters. Republicans will say this is just because the mail-in ballots are tainted.

Then, Mike Pence will announce that Trump has been elected based on the electoral certificates that he decides are worthy to count. Trump will have stolen the election, but it will all be perfectly legal. There certainly might be an extended bureaucratic tussle at this point involving the House of Representatives and the courts, up to and including the Supreme Court (which is Trump’s primary motivation for rushing confirmation of his new Justice).

I’m going to try not to editorialize too much, but it really comes down to how much disruption the Republicans are willing to create (total) and how much disruption the Democrats are willing to tolerate (very little). In terms of state violence as a solution, the military has already vowed to stay out of it, and US law enforcement backs Trump. It really appears as if the Trump regime has the upper hand.

Even if Trump loses the game, it’s very unlikely that he will be escorted out of the White House. If it looks like Trump’s gambit won’t pay off, he will attempt to escape to Russia with his family members. He’ll move millions of dollars into Russian banks before that, so US intelligence will see it coming, but they won’t be able to stop him from leaving because he will still be President at that time — he might even fly there on Airforce One.

Here’s a much more in-depth narrative about the problem that this election presents:

The Election That Could Break America
If the vote is close, Donald Trump could easily throw the election into chaos and subvert the result. Who will stop him?
by Barton Gellman, The Atlantic